Author: Yan Krivonosov

We have gotten used to looking at America. It has always been this way: where the USA is, there is the epicenter of the global storm. The Great Depression, the oil crisis of the 70s, the dot-com bubble, the mortgage collapse of 2008... The American market sneezes — the world economy catches pneumonia. Today we are once again on the brink of that very moment, and it seems that this time we are facing the most serious crisis in the last 100 years. But let's agree right away: this is not a panic report. This is an attempt to understand where we are and why a crisis always brings new opportunities.

Inflation: the American pump and global chaos.

It all starts with money. On February 25, employees of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a report that should have shaken investors but passed somewhat routinely. The fund's specialists predict that inflation in the USA will not return to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% until the beginning of 2027. The reason? A gigantic budget deficit (7-8% of GDP) and national debt, which will reach 140% of GDP by 2031.

The situation is stalemate. If inflation does not recede, the Fed cannot lower rates (currently at 3.5-3.75%). A high rate strengthens the dollar and makes American bonds attractive, with yields hovering around 4.69%. This is a classic scenario of a 'safe haven', where money moves from risky assets like cryptocurrencies into US government debt.

And if the States turn on the printing press again to plug holes in the budget (as they have done many times before), the world will drown in inflation. The dollar will become more expensive for everyone else, commodities will start rising in price, and emerging markets will take a body blow.

Generation Z and the 'quiet' cities of China.

But a crisis is not just about the numbers in the Fed's reports. It's about people. Let's face the truth: the zoomer generation has found itself trapped. They have nowhere to go to work. And it's not about laziness — the world has changed too quickly.

In Russia, for example, the number of job vacancies requiring skills in AI has increased by 31%, while the number of resumes focused on neural networks has soared by 167%. It seems like growth. But this story is about those who are already 'in the loop'. What about those who have just graduated from university, where they were taught to work the old-fashioned way? This is a global situation: even in the USA, young professionals aged 22 to 25 find themselves in a vulnerable position. Companies are increasingly investing in AI instead of hiring newcomers. A quarter of top managers worldwide believe that neural networks can perform tasks that were previously assigned to interns. AI has already 'killed' 50% of routine tasks in various professions — and it’s practically free.

And now add real estate here. In the USA, office buildings are sitting vacant at 35-40%. In Chicago, a 22-story tower in the city center was sold for eight times less than it was eight years ago — the new owner paid only $41 million instead of the previous $318 million. There are no tenants, and the loans that were taken out to build these skyscrapers need to be repaid. Construction companies and banks are not generating income, cutting staff and salaries. Without stable jobs and savings, zoomers cannot afford housing. The market is in a tailspin.

And against this backdrop, in China — silence. Literally. Cities in the Middle Kingdom are switching to electric vehicles so quickly that you have stopped hearing the noise of engines. Gasoline and oil are no longer the number one commodity. The electricity that the Chinese obtain from solar panels has decreased in price several times over the past five years. This is a global tectonic shift that hits the pockets of oil exporters, including Russia. The only factor that could push commodity prices up right now is escalation in the Middle East. As sad as it sounds.

Is China on the brink? And the new reality of banking.

However, not everything is smooth for China either. Some analysts are seriously saying that the country is balancing on the brink of bankruptcy. The real estate bubble in the PRC (which amounts to trillions of dollars) is still not fully deflated. The external debt of corporations is enormous, and demographics leave much to be desired — the population is aging, and the workforce is shrinking.

Chinese companies are desperately in need of AI specialists (the shortage is about 5 million people), but the economy is slowing down. The pressure is colossal.

In this chaos, the old financial system is cracking at the seams. The banking system we have known for the last 50 years will no longer be seen in five years. The world is changing right now, and the main driver of change is blockchain. Just think: the Aave protocol, one of the tools of decentralized finance (DeFi), has already issued loans worth $26 trillion! Banks that previously looked down on crypto now want to use this liquidity. They are lining up to enter DeFi tools.

What to do and what does Bitcoin have to do with it?

This situation — inflation, geopolitics, and a crisis of trust in fiat — has always been the best environment for Bitcoin. This is not financial advice; it is simply knowledge of history and mathematics. Bitcoin is finite. It cannot be printed at the government's discretion. In moments when America turns on the printing press while real estate and stocks are falling, capital seeks an outlet in an absolutely solid asset.

But let's think broader. A crisis is always an opportunity. Yes, we are entering a storm, possibly the most powerful in a century. Yes, it is difficult for zoomers; the physical business has not recovered since COVID, the labor market is being reshaped by AI, and the geopolitical map of the world is being redrawn by wars and new technological alliances.

But it is precisely now, before our eyes, that blockchain, stablecoins, and real-world assets (RWA) are entering our everyday life. This is not the end of the world — it is a reboot. The world is getting rid of the old, ineffective, and preparing for a new leap.

There is no sitting it out. The only way out is to look around, search for new niches, and integrate into the new reality. If you understand which way the wind is blowing, the crisis will not be a catastrophe for you but a trampoline.

Everything I have written here is just thoughts aloud. The decision is yours. But the time to act is now.

#Инфляция #global #InflationOutlook #ФРС #госдолг