One of the most important phases of the cycle is currently being formed, which most participants misunderstand.
Let's analyze the facts.
📉 1️⃣ Massive cleaning of leverage
Current open interest in BTC: $44.8 billion
This is approximately –55% from the peak in October 2025.
What does this mean:
✅ the market is losing overloaded leverage
✅ the number of forced liquidations is decreasing
✅ the price is starting to depend again on real spot demand
Historically:
major drops in Open Interest have almost always occurred before a new trend movement.
👉 If OI stays below ~$45B and BTC stops making new lows — the market undergoes a full reset.
2️⃣ Pain is concentrated among new participants
Currently:
• 99% of investors who bought BTC in the last 6 months are at a loss
• 80% bought above $70k
This is a key moment in the cycle.
Growth rarely starts while:
• newcomers hope to break even,
• the market is filled with 'stuck' positions.
Real reversals appear after the psychological exhaustion of sellers.
3️⃣ BTC in dollars ≠ BTC in gold
If you look at BTC in USD → it seems like the beginning of a bear market.
If you look at BTC relative to gold → this is the final stage of the cycle.
The history of RSI BTC/Gold shows:
After cyclical lows, the returns were:
• 2015 → +141% over 12 months
• 2019 → +188%
• 2022 → +128%
That is, the best long-term entries looked exactly like this — maximally depressed.
4️⃣ Bull trap or crypto winter?
According to the Bitcoin Vector model, there are two scenarios:
🟢 Bull trap
— sharp rise
— surge in network activity
— quick return of liquidity
🟡 Crypto winter (more likely now)
— weak network
— sideways movement
— months of low volatility
— slow accumulation by major players
Such periods have historically become the best zones for long-term positioning.
📊 What is important now
The market has already:
• cleaned up leverage
• put most participants at a loss
• reduced volatility
• approached historical undervaluation zones
But growth does not start immediately after a fall,
but after a long phase of boredom and distrust.
Currently, the market looks weak in the short term,
but structurally it is becoming healthier.
The main reversal signal will appear when:
✔️ the price stabilizes
✔️ Open Interest remains low
✔️ spot demand starts to return
And it is during such periods that the market usually prepares for the next big cycle.
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