As air raid sirens suddenly blared across Tehran, Israel, in coordination with the United States, launched a large-scale military operation codenamed ‘Roaring Lion,’ targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and missile production lines. Trump promptly confirmed publicly that U.S. forces were involved, describing it as a ‘major combat operation.’
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard swiftly struck back, unleashing hundreds of missiles and drones upon Israel and U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf. Israel declared a national state of emergency and ordered the complete closure of its airspace. Explosions were heard near Abu Dhabi Airport, and an Asian citizen was killed when debris fell from the sky.
In response to the attacks, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quickly retaliated, launching hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israeli and U.S. military bases around the Persian Gulf.
The response of the financial markets is brutal and honest. In just one hour, BTC sell volume surged by approximately $1.8 billion.
After the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, BTC briefly fell to $63,000, and the perpetual contract funding rate dropped to -6%, the second lowest level in nearly three months, the last time it hit this level was on February 6 when BTC bottomed around $60,000. Meanwhile, as gold was not trading, gold futures surged nearly 6% against the trend.
Currently, Israel has entered a national state of emergency, and airspace is completely closed. Although the international community is still cautiously defining whether this constitutes 'total war', this high-intensity local conflict has substantially changed the regional landscape.
The heart of the crypto industry, on the edge of war
As the smoke spreads, the three countries at the geopolitical hub—Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—are experiencing dual pressures, both physical and psychological.
Southern Lebanon has become the second battlefield for clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli military. Beirut International Airport has been urgently closed, and the sound of sonic booms from Israeli military aircraft frequently echoes over the city.
Although Saudi Arabia is trying to maintain neutrality, its airspace has become a 'corridor' for missile flights. The U.S. military stationed at the Prince Sultan Air Base has entered a state of high alert, and the Saudi government is on high alert for any stray missiles that may hit its facilities.
Dubai International Airport is currently in a state of large-scale flight cancellations, and the Al Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi frequently sounds alarms. Once the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Dubai's shipping and financial status will suffer a devastating blow.
Several explosions have been reported near Abu Dhabi International Airport, and according to multiple media reports, an Iranian airstrike led to debris hitting a residential area in Abu Dhabi, resulting in the death of an Asian citizen.
And these areas on the brink of war are precisely where the focus of the crypto industry has shifted in recent years. The UAE has evolved into a global cryptocurrency hub, which also means that this war is threatening the crypto industry in unprecedented ways.
Binance has officially ended the 'no headquarters' era and has set its global headquarters in Abu Dhabi, UAE (ADGM). Meanwhile, it has a large office space in Dubai (located in One Central). OK has a large regional hub in Dubai (near the World Trade Center) and just expanded the size of its Dubai office by the end of 2025, with over 100 employees serving the entire Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Bybit relocated its global headquarters from Singapore to Dubai (One Central) in 2023, with nearly all employees working in Dubai.
Almost all the leading institutions you can name have set up roots in Dubai or Abu Dhabi. And Dubai is only about 300 kilometers from Iran's southern coastline, separated by just a stretch of the Persian Gulf.
In addition, other well-known international projects and trading platforms have also established a presence in the Middle East. For example, Crypto.com has a complete operating license in Dubai and has just signed multiple payment cooperation agreements with the Dubai government. Kraken has its Middle Eastern headquarters in Abu Dhabi and is one of the first international platforms to obtain a local license. Chainalysis, a leading blockchain analysis company, has an office in Dubai, responsible for monitoring money laundering and illegal financing activities in the region. They are currently closely monitoring the flow of crypto funds within Iran.
The situation for local native trading platforms is even more precarious. Their foundation is in the Middle East, and once war breaks out, they may face a survival crisis. For example, Rain Financial is headquartered in Bahrain and has a large office in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Given Bahrain's proximity to Iran and the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, it may face extremely high geopolitical security risks.
BitOasis is the earliest and largest local trading platform in Dubai, with users mostly concentrated in Gulf countries; CoinMENA is headquartered in Bahrain, mainly serving users from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi are gathering places for global Web3 talent. If war breaks out, a large outflow of talent or cyber attacks on network infrastructure (Cyberwarfare) may lead to stagnation in the development progress of multiple projects.
If the Middle Eastern banking system is sanctioned due to war or temporarily closed for security reasons, the local AED (Dirham) or SAR (Riyal) deposit and withdrawal channels for these trading platforms may become paralyzed.
Market outlook for next week
In the extreme context of the 'Roaring Lion' operation that broke out on February 28, 2026, the opening on March 2 next Monday may be a key window for the financial markets to experience the 'shockwave of war'.
As the absolute king of safe havens, gold is the only 'ultimate insurance' in geopolitical crises. With the U.S. military announcing the start of 'major combat operations', global safe-haven funds will surge into the gold market in an instant when it opens on Monday.
Some analysts believe that Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, which will lead to a surge in crude oil prices. The secondary inflation expectations brought by high oil prices will further push up gold prices. It is expected that there will be a huge upward gap when the gold market opens on Monday. If Iran's counterattacks expand to civilian shipping channels in the Persian Gulf over the weekend, gold prices may challenge the psychological barrier of $5300-5800 per ounce in the short term, further reaching historical highs.
As for BTC, although Bitcoin is known as 'digital gold', it is often viewed as a risk asset in the first few hours to days following the outbreak of war. Institutional investors tend to sell the most liquid crypto assets first to regain liquidity or respond to margin calls in the stock market.
As previously mentioned, Dubai and Abu Dhabi are the global Web3 centers. The threat to the physical security of the region may lead investors to worry about the operational stability of related exchanges (such as Binance and Bybit), resulting in panic selling.
If there is a global stock market crash (S&P 500, Nasdaq) next Monday and the exchange rates of Middle Eastern fiat currencies (such as Riyals and Dirhams) fluctuate, Bitcoin's nature as a decentralized safe-haven asset may begin to awaken.
There is a long-term bullish view that suggests that Monday may initially experience a pullback (support levels may be near key integer thresholds), and if the war evolves into a long-term confrontation and traditional financial payments are obstructed, Bitcoin may exhibit a 'decoupling' trend, rebounding against the market. Current battlefield news continues to update, and the most important indicator is to pay attention to Bitcoin's trading volume.
The ultimate victims of war are ordinary people.
Southern Lebanon has become a second battlefield, with Beirut Airport closed. Saudi airspace has fallen into a missile corridor. Dubai Airport has a large number of flight cancellations. Bahrain, home to Rain Financial and CoinMENA, is stationed with the U.S. Fifth Fleet, very close to Iran.
Web3 talent will leave, project development will stagnate, and network infrastructure may suffer from cyber warfare attacks. But these are still industry-level costs. The more real cost is: some people have already died. Families are fleeing. Children are spending the night in bomb shelters.
History repeatedly tells us that there are no true winners in war. It destroys not only buildings and markets but also the trust, order, and future built by generations. One of the original intentions of cryptocurrency is to allow ordinary people to retain some autonomy in an out-of-control world. But without peace, even the most decentralized systems will tremble under the reality of cannon fire.
What we can do may not be much. But at least, we should not be indifferent to what is happening. We also hope that this conflict can be resolved as soon as possible.#美以袭击伊朗 #伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死 #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH