What a Bitcoin bear market looks like is something many people do not know or have already forgotten.

A bear market is not the end of the world, nor is it a casual 'correction'; it is part of the cycle.

BTC has gone through 3 major cycles since its inception.

Historically, the average decline in bear markets is between 77% and 86%, lasting about 11-15 months.

2014: -86% decline, lasting 14 months

2018: -84%, 12 months

The -77% of 2022, 11 months

These cycles are as precise as a pendulum, on average, bear markets fall about 80% from peak to trough, taking about 1 year to bottom.

Historically, there has never been a bear market with a 'fast V-shaped recovery'; only relentless grind, and losers exit.

At this position, inclined to #加密市场反弹 like the initial uncertain period of transition from bull to bear: the sentiment is still there, the fantasy hasn't completely shattered, and the rebound is still regarded as hope.

Of course, due to the expectation of interest rate cuts, a V-shaped recovery may also occur.

The market already shows signs of 'buying on dips', and on-chain data indicates that long-term holders are not selling off in large quantities, but rather accumulating chips at low levels, which is highly similar to the characteristics before previous bull markets began.

The three fatal mistakes that small investors are most likely to make in a bull market's tail end bear market are:

First, going all in at once, fantasizing about hitting it big all at once.

Secondly, chasing the rise and selling on the dip; FOMO buying high at the end of a bull market, and FUD selling low in a bear market.

Third, diversify your attention; chasing hotspots in a bear market leads to holding a bunch of junk when BTC takes off.

The core logic of dollar-cost averaging

BTC is a cyclical asset; the more it falls in a downturn, the more you buy, reducing the unit cost, and the higher the returns when the bull market arrives.

It sounds simple, but there is a huge mismatch here: mathematical expectation vs psychological perception.

Mathematically: The more it declines, the higher the long-term expectation of dollar-cost averaging.

Psychologically: Each decline will make you doubt, 'Is this really going to bounce back?'

Dollar-cost averaging in a bear market is not a technical issue, but a repeated execution against human nature.

Still the same saying, the decisive factor is outside the market!

The fifth round of BTC's bear market, based on a time dimension, is expected to last until the third quarter of 2026. Considering that the World Cup year and BTC sentiment peak occurs in January 2025, it may also end around the World Cup. In terms of price, there is a probability of falling below 50,000, and in extreme cases, the low point could very likely reach 39,000.

Based on my experience, set two threshold prices: a middle threshold price of 75,000 and a low threshold price of 60,000.