The cryptocurrency market is entering a sensitive phase as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. Many investors are asking: will the Israel/US - Iran conflict at the end of February 2026 become the 'trigger' that marks the beginning of a new downtrend cycle similar to the Russia - Ukraine scenario in 2022?
History never repeats itself exactly, but it often leaves behind patterns worth reflecting on. And if we look at past data, the market is showing signals that make cautious investors wary.
Looking back at 24/2/2022: When the Russia-Ukraine war began the downtrend
On 24/2/2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, Bitcoin traded around the $40,000 mark. At that time, many still hoped the market would hold this price level as a 'medium-term bottom'. However, just a few months later, the selling pressure widened, liquidity weakened, and the price of BTC halved, falling to around $20,000.
Not only war but also the series of 'black swan' events that followed, from the collapse of large funds to liquidity crises, has dragged the entire market into a prolonged crypto winter.
The notable point is that the cycle peak had formed earlier, and geopolitical conflicts act as a catalyst that intensifies selling pressure.
End of Q4/2025 - beginning of Q1/2026: Will the peak formation model repeat?
When comparing the chart structure at the end of Q4 - beginning of Q1 of the two cycles of 2022 and 2026, similarities can be observed: Bitcoin creates distribution zones after strong increases, trading volume gradually weakens, and the market begins to see intense selling phases.
Currently, as tensions between Israel/US and Iran escalate on 28/2/2026, BTC is trading near the $70,000 mark. This is a crucial psychological zone, similar to the role of the $40,000 mark in 2022.
If historical scenarios repeat in a roughly equivalent ratio, a price 'halving' is not impossible. At that point, the $35,000 zone could become a potential target if the market enters a deep correction phase.
$40,000 mark: The boundary determining the trend
Some viewpoints suggest that the most notable time is not when the market starts to decline, but when Bitcoin loses the $40,000 mark. If this threshold is breached with significant volume, the long-term bullish structure may be broken, opening the door for a deeper downtrend.
From a cautious perspective, the reasonable strategy now is not to 'catch a falling knife', but to reduce trading frequency, preserve capital, and wait for clear trend confirmation. In a high-volatility context, risk management is more important than seeking short-term profits.
Black swan and financial cycles: Is the biggest storm yet to come?
Every major downtrend cycle in financial history is associated with 'black swan' events, unexpected shocks that shake the system. In 2022, it was the cascading failures in the crypto sector and tightening monetary policy.
In 2026, the question arises: could the Middle Eastern conflict just be the beginning? If the global economy weakens, capital will flee from risky assets, and liquidity will tighten, making it difficult for the crypto market to remain unaffected.
Nevertheless, it should be emphasized that Bitcoin now is different from four years ago: institutional cash flows are larger, spot ETFs are functioning more robustly, and global acceptance is higher. This could mean that the scope of decline may not entirely resemble the past.
Strategy in times of uncertainty
For long-term investors, being prepared for worst-case scenarios does not equate to extreme pessimism. If the market genuinely enters a bear market, the greatest opportunities often arise when fear peaks.
However, the 'greed when others are fearful' principle truly applies only to assets with strong fundamentals and high liquidity. In the context of geopolitical volatility, many views suggest that Bitcoin is a safer choice compared to altcoins that are sensitive to speculative cash flows.