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Warning! The Federal Reserve is very likely not to cut interest rates tonight!
Don't be fooled by Trump's constant calls for rate cuts; recently, key data such as non-farm payrolls, CPI, monthly sales rate, and PPI have not provided any positive signals, completely a situation of 'loud thunder, little rain'; moreover, even if there is a real cut of 25 basis points, the impact would be minimal, and it would be almost the same as not cutting. A cut of 25 would lead to a decline, and not cutting would lead to an even deeper drop; only a cut of 50 basis points might result in a rise, but the probability is too low.
So tonight, keep an eye on short positions, target 112600 for the main contract and 4260 for the second contract, and the key is Powell's press conference. Don’t be swayed by market sentiment, just do it!
Don't be fooled by Trump's constant calls for rate cuts; recently, key data such as non-farm payrolls, CPI, monthly sales rate, and PPI have not provided any positive signals, completely a situation of 'loud thunder, little rain'; moreover, even if there is a real cut of 25 basis points, the impact would be minimal, and it would be almost the same as not cutting. A cut of 25 would lead to a decline, and not cutting would lead to an even deeper drop; only a cut of 50 basis points might result in a rise, but the probability is too low.
So tonight, keep an eye on short positions, target 112600 for the main contract and 4260 for the second contract, and the key is Powell's press conference. Don’t be swayed by market sentiment, just do it!
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