On-chain data shows that the market is still in a weakening phase

The recent recovery of Bitcoin has led many investors to hope that the cryptocurrency market is preparing to enter a new growth cycle. However, the latest on-chain data presents a more cautious perspective. According to a report from CryptoQuant, the current price increase of Bitcoin is likely just a "relief rally" – a technical rebound in a downtrend – rather than the beginning of a new bull run cycle.

In a recently published report, Mr. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin's fundamental and technical indicators have yet to confirm the return of a bull market.

Selling pressure has decreased significantly, helping Bitcoin recover

According to Mr. Moreno, although the price of Bitcoin briefly exceeded 73,000 USD on Thursday, the overall market context still reflects characteristics of a bear cycle. Indicators assessing network health, cash flow, and investor behavior have not yet reached levels typically seen before entering a strong growth phase.

“Bitcoin is still in a bear market environment, despite the recent price recovery. Fundamental and technical indicators have not yet shown clear reversal signals,” Moreno commented.

In CryptoQuant's analysis, the current rise is more in line with a 'relief rally' model, a price surge after the market has experienced a prolonged series of significant declines.

One of the important factors supporting Bitcoin's recent recovery is the significant decrease in selling pressure in the market.

Data shows that spot demand for Bitcoin has improved significantly in recent times. The index measuring actual demand previously recorded a contraction of about -136,000 BTC at the beginning of 2026, but has now narrowed down to about -25,000 BTC. This indicates that selling pressure in the market has decreased significantly compared to the previous period.

Additionally, cash flow from American investors is also returning. An important indicator is the Coinbase Premium, which reflects the buying activity of American investors through the Coinbase exchange, has shifted from a deep negative level earlier in February to the highest positive level since October last year.

This change indicates that the demand for spot buying has shifted from a declining state to growth, contributing to the market's recovery momentum.

Investors are selling less as losses rise sharply

Another factor supporting Bitcoin’s price is the change in behavior of traders and long-term investors.

According to CryptoQuant data, the unrealized losses of traders have recently reached levels seen in July 2022. In the history of the cryptocurrency market, this is often when marginal selling pressure decreases, as many investors do not want to cut losses when the loss level has become too large.

At the same time, long-term investors - a group often seen as the 'backbone' of the Bitcoin market - are also significantly reducing their selling amounts. The selling rate in the past 30 days for this group has decreased from about 904,000 BTC at the end of November to around 276,000 BTC currently, the lowest since June 2025.

The decrease in selling activity from both short-term traders and long-term holders has contributed to a more favorable environment for price recovery.

The Bull Score index remains very low

Despite some certain improvement signals, CryptoQuant believes that the market has not yet entered a phase of sustainable growth.

The Bitcoin Bull Score Index, a tool that aggregates many fundamental and technical indicators to evaluate the current market state, currently only scores 10/100 points. This is a very low level, indicating that most signals that typically appear before a bull run have not yet formed.

This means that the current recovery may only be temporary if the underlying factors do not continue to improve.

Important resistance zones ahead

In the event that Bitcoin continues to rise, CryptoQuant believes that the market will have to face some important resistance zones.

The first milestone is around 79,000 USD, corresponding to the low range of the trader's realized price index - an on-chain indicator that often acts as resistance in a bear market.

The next milestone is near 90,000 USD, corresponding to the overall realized price level of the trader group. Previously, this price zone had halted a strong surge when Bitcoin recovered from 80,000 USD to nearly 98,000 USD earlier this year.

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading around 71,000 USD, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours.

The market still needs more confirmation signals

Overall, Bitcoin's recent recovery reflects an improvement in market demand and a decrease in selling pressure. However, key on-chain indicators have not yet confirmed that the market has entered a new growth cycle.

In this context, many experts believe that investors need to monitor additional signals from cash flow, long-term holder behavior, and on-chain indicators before concluding that the cryptocurrency market has truly exited the weakening phase.

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