The market has just gone through a strong drop $BTC from $126,000 to $60,000. Currently, the price is recovering to the $75,000 range. Don't let these numbers deceive your emotions.
1. Crowd Psychology vs. Structural Reality
The majority's expectation: Believing that this is the absolute bottom and the price will "to the moon" immediately to $200,000 - $250,000.
Technical reality: In terms of price structure and momentum, the scenario of vertical growth at this time has an extremely low probability, almost impossible.
2. Why is this a "Trap"?
According to Elliott wave theory, the bounce from $60,000 to $75,000 is likely only Wave B in the corrective pattern:
Artificial feeling: It "looks like" a reversal, "feels like" a new trend, but in reality, neither is true.
The underlying nature: This bounce is corrective rather than impulsive. It lacks the decisiveness and explosive trading volume of a true growth wave.
3. Recognition point
WAVE 3 ≠ NEW TREND
If the bounce consists of only 3 small waves, it is never the beginning of a long-term Uptrend.
No clear momentum, no continuation. This is typically the trap for the FOMO buyers.
4. Necessary conditions for a new Cycle
For a sustainable bull market, we need to see Accumulation instead of temporary "springing" moves:
Sideway: Prices need to move sideways at the bottom for a long time.
Psychological challenge: "Sweeping" (dropping then shooting up) occurs around price ranges of 5x 6x 7x to eliminate weak-handed traders.
Time: Accumulation needs time to absorb all selling pressure before actually starting a new growth cycle.
❌ ABSOLUTELY DO NOT JUMP IN AND OUT TO OPTIMIZE PROFITS, UNINTENTIONALLY CREATING A VERY BAD HABIT, IN THE CASE OF SIDEWAY PRICES AT HIGHER RANGE (FOR EXAMPLE 70-80) THEN CREATING A GROWTH CYCLE STRUCTURE WILL CAUSE YOU TO MISS A WHOLE LARGE CYCLE
DO NOT CONFUSE SPOT & FUTURES
#CreatorpadVN @Binance Vietnam $BNB
