Sometimes one macro report can tell more about the economy than dozens of speeches by central bankers.
Today I already wrote about initial unemployment claims, which can be considered an indicator of current pressure on the labor market.
But the latest data from the USA (Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rates) looks... to put it mildly, strange.
Employment outside agriculture suddenly showed a decrease of 92 thousand jobs.
Analysts expected an increase of 58 thousand.
The difference is almost 150 thousand jobs.
The unemployment rate has also increased to 4.4%.
So far, this is not a disaster.
But the market is carefully looking at something else.
When the labor market begins to cool down, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma.
On one hand โ inflation.
On the other โ the risk of recession.
And historically, the Fed almost always makes the same choice.
It starts to lower rates.
And sometimes it also opens the liquidity tap.
And here begins an interesting paradox.
What looks bad for the economy sometimes becomes good news for the risk asset market.
Stocks are rising.
Liquidity is returning.
Money is seeking yield.
And the crypto market is also starting to revive.
Of course, making far-reaching conclusions from one report is risky.
Macroeconomic data is often revised.
But if weakness in the labor market is confirmed in the coming months, pressure on the Fed will increase.
And then markets will begin to price in what traders love most.
๐ฅCheap money ๐ฅ
๐ And historically, the crypto market reacts very well to this.
Therefore, sometimes the most "bullish" scenario for $BTC , $ETH or $BNB starts with quite strange news.
The economy suddenly begins to look weaker than expected.
If you are interested in analyzing the crypto market without rose-colored glasses โ subscribe to @MoonMan567 . Here we talk about crypto honestly, sometimes with irony, but always substantively.
