#美联储降息概率升至50 % 1. Core Data (Latest as of March 7)

- Probability of a 25bp rate cut in June: 51.2% (first time breaking 50%)
- Trigger: February Non-Farm Employment -92,000 (Expected +55,000), unemployment rate rises to 4.4%
- March/April: The probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% remains above 95%, and a rate cut is almost impossible

2. Key Background

- Non-farm employment sees its first negative growth since October 2025, with the previous two months revised down by a total of **-69,000**
- Official statements: Waller leans towards a 25bp rate cut; Daly/Goolsbee say it's not advisable to rush into a rate cut, inflation remains high
- Combined with Middle East conflict + soaring oil prices, the market shows concerns over stagflation

3. Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market (Binance/USDT)

- Short-term (1-3 days): Risk aversion + deleveraging dominate, BTC/ETH plummets (BTC falls below 69,000 USDT)
- 100,000+ people liquidated in 24 hours, amounting to 366 million USD
- Logic: Recession panic > rate cut expectations, funds sell high-risk assets for liquidity
- Mid-term (1-3 months): If a rate cut indeed happens in June, it will be positive for cryptocurrency
- Declining US Treasury yields → lowers the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrency
- Liquidity easing → risk appetite rebounds, funds flow back to high-elasticity assets
- Key variables: Middle East situation + inflation data (if oil prices remain high, rate cuts may be delayed)

4. Trading Reference (Contract Perspective)

- Short-term: Bearish/Wait-and-see, focus on 68,000 USDT support, 72,000 USDT resistance
- Mid-term: Before the rate cut materializes in June, accumulate BTC/ETH on dips
- Risk control: Lower leverage, geopolitical and data volatility is high