There was a time when I moved coins from my wallet to an exchange to close a short term position, the network was not congested but the transfer still landed later than I expected. By the time the balance showed up, price had already run past the best part of the move, and from that delay on I started reading money flow before price.
From that incident, I drew a fairly plain conclusion, on chain, money often speaks earlier than price, but analysts are easily led around by noise. Seeing activity rise and calling it strength is often a rushed conclusion.
It is a lot like personal finance. If income rises but the money has to flow straight into short term debt as soon as it arrives, then the financial base is still thin, and crypto money flow is the same, money coming in fast and going out fast is only speed.
When I look at BNB, the first thing I watch is whether coins flowing into exchanges are rising at the same time as transfers from large wallets. If exchange inflows get heavier, holding time gets shorter, and familiar wallet clusters start moving funds back and forth more often, I read that as a sign of supply pressure building.
I often picture a network as a morning market. A crowd does not necessarily mean real buying power, so a rise in transaction count is not strong enough if most of the value is still rotating inside the same group of addresses.
With BNB, I only call it durable when new money does not need overly strong incentives to stay. I want to see stablecoins enter the system, spread across more small wallets, user activity hold up after a few days, and DEX volume not collapse right after a burst of excitement.
After years of watching this market, I still think the most misleading thing is a beautiful surface. On chain money flow cannot tell you tomorrow for certain, but it can tell you whether the market is breathing naturally today or just straining, and for an analyst, being able to tell those two states apart is already a real edge.