Yesterday while scrolling through Twitter, I saw Willy Woo speaking up again.
This analyst, who is respectfully referred to as the "On-Chain Father" in the circle, has thrown out a moderately sized bomb on the X platform— the early drop speed of Bitcoin in this bear market is "too fast," and the market is brewing a rebound with a target price directly at $85,000.
Willy Woo also poured a bucket of cold water: this does not mean the bottom has been reached; from a long-term liquidity perspective, Bitcoin is still deep in the mid-stage of the bear market.
Is the sharp drop a good thing or a bad thing?
Willy Woo's on-chain data shows that the drop slope in this bear market is steeper than in 2018 and 2022. What does this mean? It means that the speed at which prices are falling has increased.
Looking back at history, in the bear market of 2018, Bitcoin fell from a high of about 20,000 dollars all the way down to over 3,100 dollars, a drop of nearly 84%, taking more than a year. The 2022 drop was even harsher, crashing from nearly 70,000 to 17,000, a decline of about 77%, also over the course of a year.
Willy Woo observed that the pace of decline in the early stage of this bear market is significantly faster.
From on-chain data, this kind of rapid decline often indicates concentrated panic release. Historically, after similar sharp drops, prices usually go through a period of horizontal consolidation before slowly moving up.
Why should 85,000 dollars become the rebound target?
85,000 dollars is approximately the average cost line for current short-term holders. What is a short-term holder? They are investors who plan to sell within a few weeks to a few months after buying, commonly known as 'short-term traders.'
Imagine this, you bought coins at 85,000, and now it has dropped to 70,000, how do you feel? The feeling of being stuck is unpleasant.
Therefore, when Bitcoin rebounds to around 85,000 dollars, it will face a large selling pressure from short-term traders.
Willy Woo's judgment is: the rebound may test this position, but whether it can hold is another matter.
How to survive in the middle of a bear market?
The key point is: Willy Woo clearly stated 'it has not bottomed out.'
From a long-term liquidity perspective, Bitcoin's bear market cycle is often accompanied by continuous capital outflow, declining turnover, and shrinking market activity. The current market state resembles being halfway up the mountain, rather than at the bottom.
Should we reduce positions during the rebound or buy on dips?
If you are a short-term trader, around 85,000 dollars is indeed a time to consider reducing positions—not because it 'will' definitely pull back, but because there is inherent resistance there. Instead of betting on a breakout, it is better to take some profits first.
If you are a long-term holder, the current strategy should be 'dollar-cost averaging + patient waiting.' The characteristic of the middle of a bear market is severe volatility and unclear direction; heavily investing at this time can easily lead to repeated losses.
Willy Woo also mentioned an interesting signal: investor capital flow has been continuously warming since mid-February, and the VIX panic index also suggests that market sentiment may shift towards 'risk appetite' in the coming weeks.
The VIX soared to 29.49 points in early March, which is a manifestation of extreme market panic. However, historical experience tells us that when panic reaches its peak, it often marks the beginning of a turning point. When the VIX falls from a high level and the 'risk appetite' sentiment returns, capital will flow back into risk assets—including Bitcoin.
