So about the USA and Iran.
Not everyone fully understands how the market reacts to such events.
Information about the war had already been partially factored into the price. The expectation was approximately like with Venezuela: a quick 'special operation', a few days - at most a week - and that's it.
This is exactly what the market took into account.
But if this drags on for a week or a month - then the reaction will be entirely different. And then we will see another spill.
Why is the reaction more positive now than negative?
Because they killed the leader of Iran.
This was not fully factored into the price.
And from the market's point of view, this is rather a plus:
1. The war may end faster
2. A lost strategic figure
3. Minus the military decision coordinator
Here is an important point.
This post is partially educational.
A real insider is something that no one expects.
And not what was discussed 1000 times in the media.
Conditionally: if you had gone long after the war began, knowing that the leader's body was already under the rubble - you would have received a good movement. This is the insider.
And 'the war may begin' is not an insider. This is what everyone was waiting for.
We are not politicians or generals. No one knows how long this will last.
I have already written:
If it drags on - the probability of another downward movement.
It will be resolved quickly - we will stay within the current range, at most a minimal drawdown.
So far, this is the main negative that keeps the market low.
If this hadn't happened - the price would be significantly higher.
The fall is the result of the expectation of this event.
Remember one simple thing:
The insider is a movement that no one expected.
And not the news that everyone has been chewing on for weeks.
And one more thing.
Why do most influencers shout that after the war begins, the market MUST go down, while in fact we see a different reaction?
Because many still think in the old model.
Once crypto was purely a speculative story - like meme tokens are now. Any negativity = panic = minus 20%.
But today the market is different.
Now crypto is already an investment tool, part of fund portfolios, a strategic asset for companies.
And when the war starts, capital doesn't just 'run away.' It seeks alternatives.
Not everyone managed to switch to this new concept. Many still trade based on the templates of 2018.
Crypto is no longer what it was 5 years ago.
And the rules of thinking are also a bit different. Most influencers still stand on the old market and do not fully understand the concept of the new one.
As Benjamin Graham said:
"The investor’s chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself."
The main enemy is not the news, not wars, and not influencers. It is emotions and lack of adaptation.
The basic principles remain the same.
Only the way we apply them is changing.