The trading week from March 9 to March 15 is considered one of the crucial periods for the global financial market as many important macroeconomic data from the U.S. will be released. Below are the three most notable economic events that investors need to watch this week.
1. CPI inflation data for February
Time: 7:30 PM on 11/03
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February will be the first important inflation data of the week, providing insight into the price increases of goods and services in the U.S.
According to market forecasts:
CPI YoY: forecast 2.4%, unchanged from last month
Core CPI YoY: forecast 2.5%, also unchanged from the previous level
If CPI continues to remain around this level, it indicates that inflation is stabilizing but has not yet deeply reduced to the Fed's target of 2%. In the event of data higher than expectations, the market may lower expectations for interest rate cuts this year, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Conversely, if CPI is lower than expected, this could be a positive signal for loosening monetary policy expectations, supporting market sentiment.
2. PCE inflation data for January
Time: 7:30 PM on 13/03
After CPI, the market will continue to monitor the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index - the inflation measure prioritized by the Fed in evaluating policy.
The current forecast shows:
PCE YoY: 2.8% (slightly down from the previous level of 2.9%)
Core PCE YoY: 3% (unchanged from the previous period)
If PCE actually decreases as forecasted, this could reinforce the view that inflation pressure is gradually cooling. However, the fact that Core PCE remains around 3% indicates that core inflation is still quite 'stubborn', making it difficult for the Fed to make quick easing decisions.
For the crypto market, PCE is often impactful data as it directly affects expectations about interest rates in Fed meetings.
3. JOLTS job data for January
Time: 9 PM on 13/03
In addition to inflation, the U.S. labor market is also an important factor in assessing the health of the economy.
The JOLTS Job Openings report measures the number of job positions open, expected to reach 6.84 million, an increase from the previous level of 6.54 million.
If the number of jobs increases stronger than expected, this indicates that the labor market is still quite hot, meaning that wage inflation pressure may continue to persist. In this context, the Fed may be more cautious about cutting interest rates.
Conversely, if the data is lower than expectations, this could be a sign that the labor market is cooling – a factor that the Fed wants to see to ensure sustainable inflation reduction.
=> Three important economic data points including CPI, PCE, and JOLTS will play a role in shaping the Fed's monetary policy expectations in the near future. For crypto investors, these reports often cause significant market volatility, especially during data release times.
Therefore, this week is seen as a period where investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators to assess whether the 'risk-on' trend will continue or the market will enter a more cautious phase.