Recently, the atmosphere in the group is probably like this:

-- The price of crude oil is really soaring, how do we trade?
-- Lobsters are so impressive, how do we install them?
-- There's no hope left in the crypto realm, let's start over!

But just when you are cursing the crypto market to zero, Huachuang Securities, a legitimate domestic brokerage, released a research report on March 4, covering HashKey Holdings (http://3887.HK) for the first time, giving it a "recommended" rating and a target price of 8.55.

WIND number, analyst signature, profit forecast model, everything is complete.

We are losing money in the market, while institutions have already started CX "cryptocurrency concept stocks" in the Hong Kong stock market. This mismatch is worth discussing.

What exactly is HashKey?

Let's start with the fundamentals. I believe there are still many people who don't quite understand this company.

HashKey is currently the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong, founded by Xiao Feng in 2018, and just listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 17 last year, becoming the 'first stock' in the Asian digital asset field.

The IPO pricing was 6.68 HKD, with nearly 400 times oversubscription in the public offering. The cornerstone investor lineup is quite luxurious—UBS, Fidelity, and DCP are all involved, with JPMorgan and Cathay Securities acting as joint sponsors.

The business is divided into three parts: trading facilitation (accounting for about 70% of revenue), on-chain services (staking, tokenization), and asset management. Simply put, it's a compliant version of a 'crypto finance all-in-one package.'

A few key data points:

In terms of trading volume in 2024, HashKey occupies about 75% of the Hong Kong virtual asset trading market. Omnibus services have already covered 90% of licensed brokers in Hong Kong, with an average monthly trading volume of 6.2 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, a staggering increase of 238 times year-on-year.

In terms of staked asset scale, it is the largest on-chain service provider in Asia, growing from 10.2 billion HKD in 2022 to 29 billion HKD in Q3 of 2025. Additionally, it opened an exchange in Bermuda in 2024, with first-year revenue directly reaching 2.4 times that of its Hong Kong business.

However, from 2022 to 2024, this company has accumulated losses exceeding 2.3 billion HKD. It has yet to become profitable.

The forecast from Huachuang is that revenue will reach 696 million, 1.075 billion, and 1.711 billion HKD from 2025 to 2027, with losses gradually narrowing. The expected EPS is -0.32, -0.25, and -0.10 HKD. The valuation method benchmarks against Coinbase and Robinhood, giving a 22 times price-to-sales ratio for 2026.

Is 22 times PS expensive?

This question needs a reference point.

Coinbase currently has a market value of about 50 billion USD, with total revenue of 7.2 billion USD for the entire year of 2025. Calculate it yourself; the price-to-sales ratio is about 7 times. Of course, Coinbase is already profitable; although Q4 did not meet expectations, the total revenue still increased by 9% year-on-year.

What about HashKey? Its market value is less than 20 billion HKD, and its revenue scale is an order of magnitude less than Coinbase. Huachuang gives a 22 times PS, reasoning that 'high-growth stages should be given higher multiples.'

You can accept or reject this logic. But one fact is worth noting: the PS corresponding to HashKey's IPO pricing is about 13 times (according to Daiwa's estimate), and now Huachuang gives 22 times, which is actually quite a bit more expensive than its listing valuation.

I personally think there is a core variable here—whether Hong Kong can become Asia's compliant crypto center.

If it can, HashKey, as the leader with a 75% market share in the Hong Kong trading market, might not be considered expensive at 22 times PS. If this story cannot continue, then the current valuation is purely paying for expectations.

But regardless of whether it is expensive or not, what is more worth paying attention to is—why are there suddenly people willing to pay for this expectation now?

I know that most people's reaction upon reaching this point may be: So what? What does this have to do with my altcoins?

The relationship is actually very direct.

How has the money flowed in the crypto market in recent years? Retail investors are chasing after meme coins, engaging in on-chain activities, and betting on obscure projects—while only a few profit, the majority lose. Meanwhile, where is institutional money going? It is flowing towards compliant exchanges, ETFs, RWA, and crypto concept stocks on the Hong Kong stock market.

Huachuang covering HashKey is just the tip of the iceberg. Last year, around the time of HashKey's listing, JPMorgan sponsored it, Daiwa gave OSL a 'buy' rating, and now Huachuang has followed suit.

You will find that traditional finance is very selective about crypto—only favoring the compliant, fully licensed, and model-able valuation segment.

Yes, the paths of smart money and retail investors have completely diverged.

Retail investors are still competing with project parties in the primary market, while smart money has already chosen compliant targets in the secondary market. Retail investors are betting on which can multiply tenfold, while institutions are betting on which exchange can benefit from policy dividends.

This doesn't mean that retail investors' approach is necessarily wrong. But this cognitive gap is indeed worth considering.

I'm not saying everyone should buy Hong Kong crypto concept stocks—honestly, most people can't even buy them. But at least you can see that another group of people is already placing bets using a completely different logic.

Who is right and who is wrong? I don't know. But at least we can't just live in an information cocoon.