Have you ever wondered why the market behaves completely differently than most expect when it comes to news about token unlocks?
I often see the same story: someone reads news about token unlocks and immediately decides — 'that's it, the price will definitely drop, I need to short urgently.' But the crypto market loves to punish for too obvious decisions. The crowd expects a drop — the market does the opposite.
Over the past few years, I have developed several simple rules that really save the deposit.
1️⃣ The market reacts in advance
Very often, price pressure appears a few days before the event itself. Large players take profits even before the unlock. And when the event finally occurs, the market can unexpectedly bounce back — and those who opened shorts in advance start to be liquidated en masse.
2️⃣ The scale of the unlock is more important than the unlock itself
Sometimes such a small portion of tokens comes into circulation that the market doesn't even notice it.
But if several percent of the total supply is unlocked, it is already a serious pressure factor. Therefore, I always look at the numbers first, not the loud headlines.
3️⃣ How tokens are opened
There are projects where tokens are released gradually, in small portions. Such a flow is easily absorbed by the market.
But if a large batch appears at one moment — a real nerve game begins: sharp movements, stop-outs, and a lot of manipulations.
✨ How I act myself
I never jump into a trade right before the event. I first observe: how the price behaves, what volumes are there, is there any momentum. Only then do I make a decision. Honestly, I feel better taking a small but clear movement than trying to guess the outcome in advance.
And one more observation.
If you hold a strong project for the long term, then a drop during the unlock sometimes becomes the best opportunity to buy the asset cheaper — of course, if the project is still fundamentally sound.