As of 15:25 Kyiv time (5 minutes before the regular session opens in New York), the financial world held its breath. The last one and a half hours became a time of "reorganization" of capital against the backdrop of conflicting signals: Trump's peacemaking rhetoric and real escalation in the skies over the Middle East.
Here are the main financial and military events that have occurred since our last communication:
1. Tension before the opening of Wall Street
There is chaos in the pre-market (pre-trading session). The optimism that was present at 14:00 has almost evaporated:
• S&P 500 (Futures): Morning growth of +0.6% has decreased to +0.1%. Traders are pricing in the risks that the 34th wave of Iranian attacks could lead to a direct hit on American military facilities, forcing Trump to shift from talk of 'ending the war' to new large-scale strikes.
• VIX (Fear Index): Jumped by 4.5% in the last hour. This means that investors are massively buying 'insurance' against a stock market crash at the opening.
2. Gold (XAU/USD): Return to growth
Gold has started to emerge from sideways drift and is currently trading at $5,210 – $5,225.
• Reason: After news that Iranian missiles were spotted heading towards major airports in Israel, large funds started transferring liquidity from futures to stocks into 'physical' metal.
• Technical condition: We are observing the formation of a 'bullish flag'. If the stock market opens with a decline at 15:30, gold may instantly break the level of $5,250.
3. Oil reversal: Trump's 'bottom' has been broken
Brent oil, which fell to $92 in the morning, has started to rise again and is now priced at $96.40.
• Why the price is rising: The market has realized that Trump's promises to 'flood the world with oil' will not work immediately, while the Strait of Hormuz remains an active combat zone.
• Factor of China: Reports that Chinese tankers have started maneuvering in the 'Maritime Security Belt' training zone have forced Goldman Sachs analysts to revise their forecast: they believe that oil will return to $110 by evening if the blockade of the strait intensifies.
4. Dollar (DXY): attempt to reach the 100 mark
The US dollar index currently stands at 99.45.
• This is gold's main 'enemy' today. The dollar is rising because European investors are fleeing from the euro due to fears of an energy crisis in the EU (gas prices in Europe have also risen by 12% today).
5. Political trigger: Anticipation of a White House statement
Rumors are circulating in the corridors of Washington that Donald Trump is preparing an 'emergency address to the nation' immediately after the markets open (around 16:00 Kyiv time).
• The market is waiting: Either he will announce a 'victorious ceasefire' (which will crash gold and lift stocks), or a full military embargo on Iranian oil (which could push oil to $150 and gold to $5,500).
Summary
for financial monitoring:
We are entering the 'golden hour' (15:30–16:30). It will be decided now whether capital will flow into dollars and oil (scenario of a prolonged energy war), or if gold will regain its status as the main asset of 2026.