Everyone, I’m Old Xu. I've been in this circle for nearly ten years, and I've almost memorized the candlestick patterns. Today, I won't talk about empty theories or paint grand visions; let's get to the heart of the matter and discuss 'how to survive and make money'—the only serious topic.
Who hasn't been liquidated? During my worst days, my account hit zero, and I couldn't scrape together next month's rent. My hands were shaking as I stared at the screen. That feeling wasn't cool; it was emptiness. But looking back now, I really have to 'thank' those tumbles; they taught me a hard lesson with real money: in this place, it's not as important who earns the fastest, but who lasts the longest. If you want to turn things around and build a snowball, the prerequisite is that you have to stay at the table.
Therefore, before discussing any 'techniques', first engrave these three 'principles' into your mind:
Never go all in. A single bet determining life or death is for gamblers, not traders.
Emotion is poison. Once excited, the brain shuts down, and the wallet opens up.
Don't trust luck. The market specializes in treating all forms of disbelief and 'I think it can still rise'.
If you can execute these three points into muscle memory, you have passed the first level; otherwise, no matter how many strategies you read, it's all in vain.
Okay, we’ve passed the mindset part, let's talk about something practical: how do I manage positions?
First, how to buy when it has dropped thoroughly? — Don't catch flying knives; learn to 'lay landmines'.
Excited to jump in when you see a crash? That's a problem; it needs to be treated. The early stage of a crash is all about flying knives. My simple method is 'step-by-step ambush', like laying traps:
Step one (testing, 20%): If the price has halved, don’t rush; wait. Wait until the market's criticism lessens, the volatility calms down, and the trading volume shrinks to almost stillness, then place a small order to test the waters. This is to confirm whether the market has truly 'dropped dead'.
Step two (holding, 30%): The price no longer makes new lows and starts to move sideways within a range, as if lying flat. At this time, around the previous low, bury the second batch of chips. Spread out the cost.
Step three (main attack, 50%): This is the most crucial step! You must wait until the price truly stands up, steadily climbs above an important moving average (like the 30-day line), and brings along volume. This indicates that funds may really be starting to work; at this point, put in the last main force. Remember, try to keep each batch's cost opening up by more than 10%, and don't crowd together.
Second, how to follow when it rises? — Chase trends, not mad dog waves.
The market is here, afraid of missing out? Then don’t chase it when it goes crazy. My entry points are very clear:
Starting point (30%): The short-term moving average has just formed a golden cross, and the trading volume has significantly increased compared to previous days, showing signs of 'momentum'. Follow it a bit.
Retracement point (30%): After a rise, a normal pullback occurs. When it returns near the key support line (like the 30-day line) and cannot fall further, this is a good opportunity to add a bit.
Breakthrough point (40%): The price has surged past the previous significant high with increased volume, and the entire sector's enthusiasm has also risen; this may signal the main upward wave, and you can add more. But be careful, if it suddenly spikes by dozens of points in a single day, absolutely do not chase it; that’s likely a trap.
Three, the core of everything: use discipline to control your hands.
The above is all 'attack'; the soul of this system lies in 'defense':
Before entering any trade, think clearly about how much I must exit if I lose. For me, a single loss exceeding 5% of the principal means unconditional stop-loss, no 'let's wait and see'. Protecting the principal is protecting life.
Profits need to be 'realized'. After a wave, if total profits exceed 50%, I will withdraw the initial capital part and only play with profits. This changes the mindset completely.
Don't turn your positions into a mixed bag. My base position is always a few major coins, accounting for half, which serves as the ballast. Thirty percent goes to the strongest hot spots currently, and another twenty percent is always kept in cash, waiting for opportunities. You can act in a bull market and also endure in a bear market.
Ultimately, there are no gods in the market, only the gap in cognition and execution power. What I have is essentially a set of tools to counter my own human weaknesses. It doesn't guarantee you will get rich, but it can greatly increase your chances of surviving to the next cycle.
Always remember: in this arena, minimizing losses is maximizing profits; survival allows for output. If you're also tired of being repeatedly harvested by the market, it's better to start from today and pry off the 'all in' button. Discipline is your only ally to rely on.
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