Based on the available information for September 2025, there is no consensus on whether a new altcoin season has started or when it will begin. Market analysts are divided, with indicators suggesting we are in a transitional phase, but a full-blown altseason has not yet been confirmed.

The table below summarizes the key indicators and current market signals to help you understand the situation.

Indicator What It Measures Current Signal (as of Sept 2025) Interpretation

Altcoin Season Index Percentage of top altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over 90 days ~41/100 (Below the threshold of 75) Early capital rotation may be happening, but the market is not in a full altseason.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap Fallen below 60% A positive sign for alts, indicating capital may be starting to flow out of Bitcoin.

Market Narrative Trends driving investor interest and inflows Selective and narrative-driven (e.g., AI, Real-World Assets) rather than broad-based The market is more mature and focused on projects with clear utility, suggesting a different dynamic from past cycles.

📈 Conflicting Expert Views and Market Outlook

The expert community is split on what happens next, which reflects the market's uncertainty:

· The "Selective Season" Thesis: Many analysts believe that instead of a classic "rising tide lifts all boats" altseason, 2025-2026 will be characterized by narrative-driven runs in specific sectors. Capital is flowing into altcoins with strong fundamentals, like Ethereum, Solana, and Chainlink, rather than every altcoin indiscriminately. This is largely driven by institutional investors who favor projects with clear value propositions.

· The "No Season" Thesis: A more cautious view argues that a sustained, broad altcoin season may not happen at all. Reasons include a lack of a unifying narrative like the previous DeFi or NFT booms, a massive oversupply of new tokens diluting gains, and many retail investors staying on the sidelines.

· Potential Timeline: For those who believe a season is coming, some analysts project it could peak in the fourth quarter of 2025 or early 2026, depending on macroeconomic factors like interest rates and global liquidity.

🔍 How to Monitor the Situation

Since the timing is uncertain, the best approach is to stay informed by tracking reliable metrics:

· Track Key Indicators: Keep an eye on the Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance on sites like CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko. A sustained drop in BTC.D below 55% and a rise in the Altcoin Season Index above 75 would be strong signals.

· Focus on Quality: In the current environment, prioritize research into projects with strong fundamentals, real-world utility, and solid on-chain metrics rather than purely speculative assets.

· Monitor Volume and Sentiment: A sustained spike in altcoin trading volumes and a shift in market sentiment to "Greed" can also be confirming factors.

💡 A Final Thought

The rules of the market appear to have changed. The era when every altcoin would surge simultaneously may be over, replaced by a more selective and mature market.

I hope this overview helps you navigate the current market conditions.