In the field of cryptocurrency, pursuing a valuation result that is as 'precise' as a mathematical formula is difficult; a more realistic goal is to construct a 'comprehensive' valuation framework. Due to the wide variety of crypto assets (public chains, DeFi, platform tokens, NFTs, etc.), the factors driving their value are different, so it is necessary to tailor the approach based on the asset type.

Currently, mainstream valuation approaches can be divided into intrinsic value methods and relative value methods, but more importantly, it is essential to understand the core models corresponding to specific asset classes.

🔍 Overview of Mainstream Valuation Models

In order to help us quickly understand, I have organized representative valuation models for different crypto assets:

Asset type Representative project Core valuation logic Key indicators/formulas Main limitations

Public chain Ethereum, Solana Metcalfe's law: network value is proportional to the square of the number of users. Daily active addresses, on-chain transaction volume. Research shows that Ethereum's market cap is proportional to users^1.43. Not applicable when there are few early users; cannot reflect staking, burning, and other token economics details.

DeFi protocol Uniswap, Raydium discounted cash flow (DCF): discounting the fees generated by the protocol in the future to the present. Protocol revenue, accrual rate, discount rate. Forecasting future cash flows is extremely difficult; governance tokens usually do not directly capture protocol value, leading to 'accrual discount'.

PoS public chain Ethereum (validator perspective) Staking asset cash flow method: treating the fees and issuance rewards received by validators as cash flow for discounting. Staking yield, total network fees, issuance rate. Extremely sensitive to the discount rate; minor adjustments can lead to significant differences in valuation results.

Platform token/functional token BNB Currency quantity equation: MV=PQ, token price = total ecological value (PQ) / (token circulation × circulation speed). Total ecological transaction amount (PQ), token circulation speed (V), token circulation volume. The circulation speed (V) is the hardest to estimate, usually derived in reverse, and may change in the future.

Bitcoin BTC stock-to-flow model: scarcity (S2F ratio) drives value. Production cost method: mining costs constitute the price floor. Gold alternative method: benchmark against gold market capitalization. S2F ratio (stock/annual production), average mining cost, gold market cap ratio. The S2F model diverges mathematically and ignores the demand side; production costs vary by region.

💡 Core adjustments in valuation

When applying the above model, there are several key points that need special attention, or it is easy to misinterpret the data:

· Distinguish between 'protocol revenue' and 'holder income': this is one of the most important adjustments in the current valuation framework. The money that the protocol earns does not equal the money that holders can obtain. There is an 'accrual rate' in between. A low multiple obtained by directly dividing market cap by protocol revenue may be a trap, as it ignores that most revenue may not actually reach token holders. The correct approach is to calculate enterprise value / holder income.

· Rationally view 'dilution': not all token issuance is a bad thing.

· Team incentives and ecological incentives: these are real operating costs paid for future development and should be deducted in valuation.

· Investor unlocking: this belongs to market events, which will affect short-term supply and demand and prices, but does not belong to the operating costs of the protocol itself and should not be included in the core valuation multiples.

💎 Practical suggestions

Due to the absence of a single universal model, it is recommended to take the following steps:

1. Identify the category: first clarify which category the asset you want to value belongs to (public chain, DeFi, platform token, etc.), and then choose the corresponding main model.

2. Cross-validation: do not rely solely on one method. For example, when valuing Ethereum, one can simultaneously look at the network value based on Metcalfe's law, the DCF model based on validator cash flows, and the circulation speed of stablecoins in its ecosystem.

3. Pay attention to adjustment indicators: when analyzing DeFi or application chains, use the 'accrual rate' as a key diagnostic indicator to see who actually captures the value.