孙羽舟

The crackdown on illegal offshore cross-border investment starting from 5.22 is just the beginning. Most folks think it's a short-term play, and some are even looking for US brokerage accounts, but I reckon that's not a savvy move.
China's tightening of cross-border investments is gonna happen way faster than we can imagine, and the impact will be much stronger than we expect.
As the title suggests, we're only in the thunderstorm phase right now. Xi Jinping has repeatedly highlighted the 'once-in-a-century great change' and 'new productive forces' in public. A series of moves over the past few years gives us a glimpse of the bigger picture.

Breaking it down, over the past period the S&P 500’s return can roughly be divided into three parts:
Dividend contribution of approximately 0.5%;
Earnings growth contribution of approximately 27.1%;
Valuation multiple contraction drag of approximately -14.0%;
Final total return of approximately 9.9%.
This highlights a crucial issue: the market isn’t rising in a “valuation bubble” — it’s rising because strong earnings growth offsets the contraction in valuations.
In other words, even though PE and valuation multiples have already fallen, the US stock market can still rise because EPS growth is strong enough. But this also means the market’s core risk is no longer about whether “valuations can expand further,” but about whether earnings growth can be sustained.

Many investors, seeing an EPS beat in a company's earnings report—that is, earnings per share exceeding expectations—often have an immediate reaction: the company is performing well, fundamentals are strong, and market demand is solid.
But this assessment is actually not complete.
Because an EPS beat exceeding expectations may not come from strong growth on the revenue side; it could also result from improved profit margins, cost control, expense compression, changes in the tax rate, share buybacks, or even adjustments to the timing of corporate spending.
In other words, the company may not necessarily be “selling more”; it might just be “cooking the profits.”
So, looking only at an EPS surprise—earnings per share beating expectations—is not enough; you also need to check whether sales also beat expectations, the sales surprise.

Many times, the market appears to be trading “future earnings,” but in reality, whether it’s profit expectations—i.e., forward earnings—or the actual earnings already reported, both have significant limitations in how they inform judgments about the future.
A common first misconception in the investment community is to treat profit expectations (forward earnings) as future profits themselves.
By definition, profit expectations (forward earnings) are forecasts of future profits over the next 12 months or even longer, which seems inherently forward-looking. But the issue is that they are not the true results of future profits; rather, they are consensus expectations formed by the market under current information conditions. These expectations are continuously revised upward or downward based on macro data, company orders, management guidance, changes in profit margins, and the earnings reports already released.

Recently, a significant phenomenon in the market is the resurgence of large IPOs. In 2026, we might see a very rare super IPO cycle: giant tech companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could be hitting the public market. Especially SpaceX, if it lists at an extremely high valuation, the market might easily interpret it as a strong signal: Are asset prices already too high? Is the market entering the bubble's final phase?
This question can't just be answered with a simple 'yes' or 'no'. We need to break it down into two logical parts.

Over the past few months, every time bearish news hit, the stock market usually only experienced a brief pullback, quickly recovering and getting back on an upward trend. This shows that the market is no longer just afraid of bad news; it's starting to see it as a reason for future rate cuts, improving liquidity, and valuation expansion.
This is a classic case of 'bad news is good news' phase.
First off, in March 2026, the US-Iran conflict and rising oil prices took a swing at the markets. Back then, traders were worried about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices up and ramped up inflation expectations, leading to a near 10% pullback in the stock market. However, according to JPMorgan's stats from April 24, the S&P 500 bounced back from that nearly 10% dip to pre-conflict levels in just about 11 trading days.

Yesterday, the ECB announced a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the deposit facility rate to 2.25% and the main refinancing rate to 2.40%. So, from a macro perspective, where does the real impact lie?
First off, if the ECB is more hawkish than the Fed, the most immediate impact is: the Euro strengthens, and the Dollar weakens.
The period from 2014 to 2015 is a counterexample. At that time, the Fed was gearing up to exit quantitative easing while the ECB continued its easing, leading to a clear divergence in US and Eurozone monetary policy. As a result, the Dollar surged while the Euro faced significant pressure.
On the flip side, if the ECB hikes rates now and the Fed's meeting on the 16th chooses not to follow suit, or leans more dovish, then the short-end yield spread between the Eurozone and the US will improve. Funds will be more inclined to allocate to Euro assets, making it easier for the Euro to appreciate against the Dollar. The Dollar Index, especially DXY, where the Euro makes up about 58% of its weight, will naturally come under pressure.

Human bias is a mountain that's hard to climb.
Understanding the macro landscape isn't about changing it, but about recognizing the macro direction, riding the macro cycles, and making relatively rational choices at the right position. The saying 'soaring high' is never about going against the trend, but finding where we can make our moves within the greater flow.
But the question is, does understanding the macro guarantee profits?
The answer isn't necessarily clear.
The real challenge often isn't the buy and sell actions themselves, but those moments we could have controlled but easily slip out of our hands.

On June 8th, US stocks bounced back again. On the surface, the market seems to be full of confidence; but looking at the macro data, the support is becoming fragile. We can't help but wonder if there's really anything new under the sun?
The latest NFIB small business survey shows that more and more small businesses are listing labor costs as their top concern, with this metric hitting a 53-year high. This indicates that wage pressures are no longer just an issue for large corporations, the tech sector, or a few high-paying positions, but are starting to spread to small businesses and local services.
This could trigger a few significant consequences.

There's no time to mourn for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. In comparison, the BoJ's rate decision on June 16 could be the macro event that's more worth watching.
Current reports show that the market has pretty much priced in the expectation that the Bank of Japan will continue raising rates at the June meeting. Reuters states that the BoJ might lift the short-end policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%. If they end up only raising by 25bp as the market expects, the impact will be relatively limited.
But what we really need to watch out for is: if the Bank of Japan hikes rates beyond expectations, or drops some clear hawkish signals, like hinting at consecutive rate increases or a steep rate hike path, then it won't just be a local interest rate event for Japan; it'll turn into a global liquidity event.