It's been a while since we last spoke, and the situation in the market has remained largely unchanged until today:
Since the last post, $BTC it has been moving slowly and gradually in an ascending sideways trend, which falls within my expectations of a continuation-beginning of the market's upward trend.
Let's go directly to the Review:
1M Time Frame:
The monthly Time Frame indicates a Bearish phase or even a cycle, being descending for the last 4-6 months, while maintaining an ascending trend in the long term
Nevertheless, the current 1M candle is potentially concluding the correction and reversing the medium-term descending movement of the market
Closing the month at current values - neutral Bullish
Closing the month above 80k - super bullish
It's important to clarify and understand that often candles on charts are formed in the opposite direction from their final closing. Considering that today is the 13th, which is (almost) the middle of the month, the rise we see is potentially false.
I highly doubt this, you will understand why later
Trading volumes are becoming bullish during a locally descending trend, indicating the presence of Bullish divergence on the chart
RSI is in the area of historical oversold levels, having dropped to the peaks of the Bear cycle of the last cycle (2023, BTC 16-20k)
MACD also shows extreme pressure from Bears, which is very likely to start weakening as early as next month
All these and further mentioned factors tell us about the potential end of the Bear market or a correction phase (the same in the end)
Closing the month above 80k will confirm and strengthen my Bullish position
1W TF
The week shows a descending trend with rising trading volumes, RSI is oversold, MACD indicates Bullish Divergence, the current candle has high potential to break the descending trend to an ascending one
Closing this week at current values is already quite Bullish, the best closing is above 74-76k
3D TF
Today marks the closing of the three-day candle, the current situation is quite similar to the weekly TF, with the only difference being that there is already a beginning ascending trend here
1D TF
the daily looks quite good, ascending trend, high trading volumes, RSI neutral, MACD Bullish
4H TF
The four-hour chart looks quite solid and firm:
Every time after removing Long liquidity from Low, a new High is established and held
Here the trend is ascending, but MACD&RSI are starting to overheat.
This indicates that we may expect a shakeout; Long squeeze with a slight update of the current lows.
At the moment, it's 68.5-69k.
Here we can consider purchases and opening Long positions
RESULT:
The market is in historically strongest fear and fatigue, the overall sentiment is phenomenally Bearish, retail is selling its assets at a huge loss and on a massive scale. Let's add the previously described Bullish Technical picture of the market and spice it all up with the rise of cryptocurrencies against the backdrop of another geopolitical crisis.
My verdict:
The market is very strong and preparing for growth
Areas of interest for buying:
70.5-71k (current prices)
justified High Risk, it is reasonable to enter at current values with 1/4 of allocated USDT
68-69k
let's say a moderate volume of purchases
64.5-65.5
reasonably raising the baseline risk is appropriate
Areas of interest for selling and taking profits:
74-76k
a small part with SL shifted into a small profit
80-82k
it is permissible to sell 1/3 of assets or more
97-101k
here I will sell 1/3 or even half of the assets (it will be clearer closer to the matter) and shift SL
I expect higher prices, but at the moment, discussing them is irrelevant
Wishing everyone a great weekend!