1. Market sentiment baseline
The current reading of the Fear and Greed Index is 15 (extreme fear), which is in the historically low range. From a Wyckoff perspective, extreme fear often corresponds to the late stage of Composite Man (the operator) completing the Accumulation phase — the panic selling by retail investors is precisely the source of ammunition for institutions to build positions at low prices. But it also requires time.#美国PCE数据将公布 $BTC $ETH $BNB
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2. BTC Weekly — Phase C, Spring test is ongoing
Current price: $71,931 | Weekly RSI: 35.14 | Weekly MACD: -9514 (bearish expansion)
The Markdown that began from the ATH of $122,838 in July 2025 has lasted more than half a year, with a retracement of 41.5%.
Structural positioning:
• Phase A (bottoming phase): PS (Preliminary Support) appears near $88,000, then the price forms SC (Selling Climax) around $69,700 with increased trading volume and a significant lower shadow in K-line.
• Phase B (building cause phase): The price oscillates repeatedly in the $70K–$88K range, and Composite Man completes the Cause accumulation here, with each test of $70K accompanied by shrinking volume — supply is being gradually absorbed.
• Phase C (spring test): This week's $69,753 is the lowest point, today's rebound of +2.08% stands at $71,900, suspected Spring formation.
Key verification conditions:
• Spring establishment: next week's closing must stabilize above $72,000, and trading volume must rebound compared to the previous few weeks' shrinking period
• SOS (Sign of Strength) confirmation level: $78,000–$80,000, if there is a volume breakthrough, it will enter Phase D.
• Bullish target: After Phase D completion, look at the range of $88,000–$95,000 (Markup initiation phase).
Downside risk: If $69,500 is effectively broken, the Spring fails, and the next support looks at $62,000–$65,000 (extending the Secondary Test area)
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Three, ETH Weekly — Phase A, Selling Climax has not been completed
Current price: $2,137 | Weekly RSI: 36.32 | ATR: 432 (volatility is extremely high)
ETH is the weakest mainstream coin in this round, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate continuously declining relative to BTC.
Structural positioning:
Currently in the early stage of Phase A — PS is still unclear, Markdown slope is steep, and SC (Selling Climax) has not yet appeared. In the Wyckoff system, assets that have not experienced a true SC should not be involved on the left side, as the Composite Man has not yet completed the distribution process.
Waiting signal: If a single-week large-volume long lower shadow occurs in the $1,800–$2,000 range accompanied by a rapid AR (Automatic Rally), it can be considered as SC formation, then reassess the Accumulation structure.
Current operational suggestion: mainly wait and see, waiting for SC + AR two-step structure confirmation, do not chase short rebounds.
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Four, SOL Weekly — Markdown Phase C, the structure is the weakest.
Current price: $89.81 | Weekly RSI: 33.68 | Technical rating: STRONG BEARISH
SOL has dropped a maximum of 56% from the 2025 high of $205, Distribution structure is clear:
• A typical UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) and LPSY (Last Point of Supply) appear in the range of $170–$184.
• Currently forming a weak horizontal consolidation in the $85–$92 range.
Key divergence: Does $90 constitute Spring? Need to observe whether this week's closing is accompanied by an unusually large volume bullish line recovery; if not, look below $80 to the $65–$70 Secondary Test range.
SOL often stops falling last among mainstream coins, allocation needs to wait for BTC Spring confirmation before making a judgment.
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Five, BNB Weekly — Re-Accumulation, the structure is the healthiest.
Current price: $663 | Weekly RSI: 38.92 | Relative strength: the best in the field
BNB has only retraced 18% this round, much weaker than the declines of other mainstream coins, showing obvious Re-Accumulation characteristics — Composite Man is reorganizing chips in the $640–$680 range during the previous Markup process.
Structural advantages:
• SMA7 ($645) forms effective support for the price, short-term moving averages begin to rise.
• Effective breakthrough at $680 will trigger LPS (Last Point of Support) confirmation, Phase D SOS initiation.
• Target level: $720–$750 (Phase D Markup first target)
BNB is the only one among the current four major mainstream coins that is in Re-Accumulation rather than Markdown structure, logically possessing the conditions to initiate first.
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Six, Comprehensive Judgment
• Variety: BTC; Wyckoff phase: Phase C · Spring awaiting verification; Key support: $69,500; Key pressure: $78,000; Operational tendency: wait for SOS confirmation before adding positions on LPS.
• Variety: ETH; Wyckoff phase: Phase A · SC not completed; Key support: $1,800; Key pressure: $2,400; Operational tendency: wait and see.
• Variety: SOL; Wyckoff phase: Phase C · structure is relatively weak; Key support: $80; Key pressure: $95; Operational tendency: wait and see, let BTC lead.
• Variety: BNB; Wyckoff phase: Re-Accumulation; Key support: $640; Key pressure: $680; Operational tendency: relatively active, a breakthrough at $680 can follow up.
Core Logic:
Extreme Fear (Extreme Fear 15) + Continuous net inflow of ETFs + BTC $70K Spring suspected to form, these three factors resonate to create necessary conditions for a short-term rebound. However, the Spring of Phase C is the easiest position to get trapped in the Wyckoff structure — it requires subsequent SOS to verify, and before verification is completed, position management is more important than directional judgment.
Maximum risk: If BTC closes below $69,500 this week, the Spring declares failure, and the market will enter a new round of Markdown; all structural analyses need to be reset.
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This article is based on the Wyckoff Price Cycle theory and real-time on-chain, derivative data, for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks; enter the market with caution.