The biggest beneficiary of the turmoil in the Middle East is not in the region, but in Moscow ๐ฏ
๐ The shocking numbers first:
Russia earns up to 150 million dollars daily in additional revenues from oil sales, making it the primary beneficiary of the conflict in the Middle East.
Russia has received between 1.3 to 1.9 billion dollars in additional oil tax revenues since the outbreak of the crisis, and this is before its exports fully increased.
๐ข๏ธ Did the price of oil jump above $100?
Brent surged more than 30% in one day, touching $119 per barrel, the highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022
The war on Iran has halted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, and this disruption is equivalent to double the record set during the Suez Crisis in 1956
Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have cut production due to the accumulation of barrels with no place to go due to the actual closure of the strait, while energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait have been subjected to repeated Iranian attacks
๐ท๐บ How has Russia become the biggest beneficiary?
Russia exports 3.26 million barrels per day and achieves a double victory: the rise in global benchmark prices automatically raises its export prices, while Washington gave Indian refineries a temporary exemption from sanctions allowing them to buy Russian oil on tankers at sea
Energy analyst Sol Kafonik stated plainly: "Russia will benefit from rising oil prices, especially with Washington easing restrictions on selling Russian crude to India
๐ก What is Putin planning to do with this money?
Henning Gloystein from the Eurasia Group says that Moscow "has benefited enormously" already, estimating that additional gains could reach tens of billions if Gulf exports remain restricted
Europe may increase its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas because there are no European sanctions on those shipments until at least 2027, which provides an additional backdoor for Moscow's revenues
โ ๏ธ But Russia also has limits:
Years of sanctions and Ukrainian strikes have harmed the infrastructure of the Russian energy sector, limiting the speed of production or export increases even if prices rise further
The Russian shadow fleet now carries 56% of crude exports, revealing the extent of the circumvention of sanctions, but it also means higher logistical costs eating into net profits
๐ง ๐ท๐บ Russia A big winner โ billions more without effort
๐ฎ๐ท Iran Loser โ its infrastructure is being bombed
๐บ๐ธ America Internal pressure โ gasoline above $3.48 per gallon
๐ The world is paying the bill โ inflation and recession are approaching
Fuel prices in America rose 50 cents in one week to reach $3.48 per gallon, the highest level during Trump's administration
๐ฎ Even after oil dropped 7% following Trump's hint at a near end to the war, the price is still 27% higher compared to before the outbreak of the crisis
Putin has not fired a single bullet at Iran
But he collects the price of every barrel that burns there ๐ฅ
