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$BTC The current market is at the tail end of "Stage B" consolidation distribution, with a high probability of brewing the final upward temptation (Bear Market Rally), followed by the onset of an accelerated crash in "Stage C".
1. Deep Structural Comparison: Why does 2026 resemble the "double temptation" of 2022 more?
Observing 2022 (left image) and the current 2026 (right image):
Thickness of the moving average pressure zone: The gray cost zone and the green long-term zone in 2026 are currently very thick and sloping downwards, indicating that a large amount of trapped positions are accumulated above. In this structure, it is difficult for the price to reverse directly, and all upward movements have the financial function of "filling shorts and attracting long positions".
Bollinger Bands' "open-close-reopen" cycle: Currently, the Bollinger Bands for 2026 (blue line) are in a critical state after closing. Historical experience shows that before entering a "big crash", the market usually makes a sharp upward move (temptation), breaking through the red trend zone or touching the lower edge of the gray cost zone, utilizing the buying liquidity from short stop-losses to complete the final distribution.
2. The three precise boundaries of the "temptation leg" (key watch points)
According to the diagram, if another temptation occurs, its failure signal (opening short signal) usually appears at the following three "walls":
First wall: Middle Bollinger Band (approximately $69,500 - $70,500)
Performance: Continuous small bullish candles create the illusion of "stopping the decline and rising".
Second wall: Red trend zone (approximately $72,500 - $73,500)
Performance: This is the most effective "slaughtering point" in a bear market. In 2022, multiple rapid downturns occurred after touching the red band.
Third wall: Lower edge of the gray cost zone (around $75,500)
Performance: A very strong squeezing rebound will make the market widely shout "the great bull market returns". In the continuation of a bear market, this is the last large-scale distribution point.
#SolvProtocol被盗 #USDC #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低
{future}(BTCUSDT)
1. Deep Structural Comparison: Why does 2026 resemble the "double temptation" of 2022 more?
Observing 2022 (left image) and the current 2026 (right image):
Thickness of the moving average pressure zone: The gray cost zone and the green long-term zone in 2026 are currently very thick and sloping downwards, indicating that a large amount of trapped positions are accumulated above. In this structure, it is difficult for the price to reverse directly, and all upward movements have the financial function of "filling shorts and attracting long positions".
Bollinger Bands' "open-close-reopen" cycle: Currently, the Bollinger Bands for 2026 (blue line) are in a critical state after closing. Historical experience shows that before entering a "big crash", the market usually makes a sharp upward move (temptation), breaking through the red trend zone or touching the lower edge of the gray cost zone, utilizing the buying liquidity from short stop-losses to complete the final distribution.
2. The three precise boundaries of the "temptation leg" (key watch points)
According to the diagram, if another temptation occurs, its failure signal (opening short signal) usually appears at the following three "walls":
First wall: Middle Bollinger Band (approximately $69,500 - $70,500)
Performance: Continuous small bullish candles create the illusion of "stopping the decline and rising".
Second wall: Red trend zone (approximately $72,500 - $73,500)
Performance: This is the most effective "slaughtering point" in a bear market. In 2022, multiple rapid downturns occurred after touching the red band.
Third wall: Lower edge of the gray cost zone (around $75,500)
Performance: A very strong squeezing rebound will make the market widely shout "the great bull market returns". In the continuation of a bear market, this is the last large-scale distribution point.
#SolvProtocol被盗 #USDC #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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