【March 16 Iran War Dynamics】The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released an update report on the Iran war on March 16.
First, from the internal structure of the Iranian regime, the power base of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei almost entirely comes from the hardliners of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). The report mentions that long-standing Revolutionary Guard leaders such as Hossein Taeb, Ahmad Vahidi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf promoted his rise to power. This indicates that the power structure of the Iranian regime is further concentrating towards security agencies rather than religious institutions or elected governments. In other words, Iran's political structure is evolving towards a 'military security state.' The report also points out that some within the IRGC believe that war can instead strengthen domestic unity and shift the pressure of the economic crisis.
Second, from the military battlefield situation, US and Israeli airstrikes continue to weaken Iran's military capabilities. The targets of the airstrikes include police stations in Tehran, Basij militia bases, intelligence centers, and missile and drone facilities nationwide. An important signal is that US and Israeli aircraft can now strike targets deep in eastern Iran, 800 kilometers away, indicating that Iran's air defense systems have been suppressed in many areas. Additionally, the US Central Command stated that the focus of strikes has shifted from 'immediate missile threats' to Iran's overall military-industrial system.
Third, regarding Iran's retaliatory capabilities, although attacks are still ongoing, capabilities have significantly declined. The report states that Israel has destroyed about 70% of Iran's missile launch facilities. In the past 24 hours, Iran has launched multiple rounds of missiles at Israel while also attacking Gulf countries with drones and missiles, including Dubai Airport, Abu Dhabi oil fields, and oil and gas facilities. However, the air defense systems of Gulf countries have a high interception rate, so the actual damage caused is limited.
Next is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and energy transportation. Iran has not attacked ships in the strait recently and seems to allow some Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani tankers to pass safely. However, the overall oil export volume from the Middle East has still decreased by about 60%. Iran is clearly conducting a form of 'selective deterrence': creating pressure on the energy market while avoiding a complete closure of the strait that could trigger a full military retaliation.
Then there is the Lebanon and Iraq front. Hezbollah continues to attack in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, while Israel has begun limited ground operations in southern Lebanon, trying to establish a buffer zone. Meanwhile, Iranian-supported Iraqi militias are also attacking US bases and energy facilities, and the US and its allies have conducted airstrikes on these militia targets.
The last significant change is the strengthening of domestic control in Iran. The government has implemented a nationwide internet blockade and has begun cracking down on Starlink devices and VPNs to prevent the spread of war information. Tehran has also set up new security checkpoints. This indicates that the regime is concerned that the war may trigger new domestic protests.
First, from the internal structure of the Iranian regime, the power base of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei almost entirely comes from the hardliners of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). The report mentions that long-standing Revolutionary Guard leaders such as Hossein Taeb, Ahmad Vahidi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf promoted his rise to power. This indicates that the power structure of the Iranian regime is further concentrating towards security agencies rather than religious institutions or elected governments. In other words, Iran's political structure is evolving towards a 'military security state.' The report also points out that some within the IRGC believe that war can instead strengthen domestic unity and shift the pressure of the economic crisis.
Second, from the military battlefield situation, US and Israeli airstrikes continue to weaken Iran's military capabilities. The targets of the airstrikes include police stations in Tehran, Basij militia bases, intelligence centers, and missile and drone facilities nationwide. An important signal is that US and Israeli aircraft can now strike targets deep in eastern Iran, 800 kilometers away, indicating that Iran's air defense systems have been suppressed in many areas. Additionally, the US Central Command stated that the focus of strikes has shifted from 'immediate missile threats' to Iran's overall military-industrial system.
Third, regarding Iran's retaliatory capabilities, although attacks are still ongoing, capabilities have significantly declined. The report states that Israel has destroyed about 70% of Iran's missile launch facilities. In the past 24 hours, Iran has launched multiple rounds of missiles at Israel while also attacking Gulf countries with drones and missiles, including Dubai Airport, Abu Dhabi oil fields, and oil and gas facilities. However, the air defense systems of Gulf countries have a high interception rate, so the actual damage caused is limited.
Next is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and energy transportation. Iran has not attacked ships in the strait recently and seems to allow some Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani tankers to pass safely. However, the overall oil export volume from the Middle East has still decreased by about 60%. Iran is clearly conducting a form of 'selective deterrence': creating pressure on the energy market while avoiding a complete closure of the strait that could trigger a full military retaliation.
Then there is the Lebanon and Iraq front. Hezbollah continues to attack in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, while Israel has begun limited ground operations in southern Lebanon, trying to establish a buffer zone. Meanwhile, Iranian-supported Iraqi militias are also attacking US bases and energy facilities, and the US and its allies have conducted airstrikes on these militia targets.
The last significant change is the strengthening of domestic control in Iran. The government has implemented a nationwide internet blockade and has begun cracking down on Starlink devices and VPNs to prevent the spread of war information. Tehran has also set up new security checkpoints. This indicates that the regime is concerned that the war may trigger new domestic protests.