Using data to illustrate the reserve situation of Bitcoin

The biggest change in this cycle in 2024, in essence, is that the inventory of Bitcoin on exchanges has not increased with the rise in $BTC prices. On the contrary, whether BTC prices are rising or falling, the inventory on exchanges has been decreasing, and there are three reasons for this situation:

First: Although the purchases of spot ETFs may not be considered a lot, traditional investors in the United States alone have bought 1,289,739 Bitcoins, and the global inventory of spot ETFs has exceeded 1.3 million BTC.

Second: Trump's strategic reserves in the United States, many may not believe it, but indeed the inventory and price reversal of BTC started from Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Consensus Conference. Since then, the inventory of BTC on exchanges has been continuously decreasing.

PS: Even after the spot ETF is approved, the inventory of BTC in exchanges is still increasing. Currently, the BTC reserves of all recorded countries are nearly 620,000 coins. The top three are:

1. 330,000 coins in the United States

2. 190,000 coins in China

3. 61,000 coins in the United Kingdom

Third: The increase of Bitcoin strategic reserves like $MSTR, and even some state governments in the United States have begun to reserve BTC. Additionally, the FASB's ASU 2023-08 has taken effect, allowing BTC to enter the balance sheets of public companies, opening a window for public companies to purchase BTC. Although this part is still not much, it can continue to increase.

PS2: The total reserve for this part currently exceeds 1,200,000 coins.

Therefore, from the actual situation, Bitcoin is being distributed more from exchanges with support from politics, economy, and policy. The increase of BTC in the pure economic field in the recent cycle has exceeded 2,200,000 coins, and this trend is unstoppable.

But currently, the total inventory of exchanges still has nearly 3,000,000 Bitcoins, the historical highest inventory was 3,458,000 coins, which occurred on June 14, 2022. In three and a half years, it has reduced by less than 500,000 BTC, falling below 1,500,000. Even in a very optimistic scenario, achieving this by 2028 would already be quite good. I even estimate that the inventory of exchanges falling below 2,000,000 may not be seen until 2028.

But if extended to 10 years later, the opportunity will be very large.