The Strait of Hormuz is the "jugular" of the global energy trade. 20% of the world's crude (approximately 21 million barrels per day) passes through its waters. Given the increasing tension in the area, a critical question arises for our region: Are we ready to be the world's Plan B?

The outlook for 2026 shows Latin America not only as a spectator but as the main engine of new supply outside of OPEC+. However, the technical reality demands a pragmatic analysis:

1. The Triumvirate of Growth 🚀

The region is experiencing an unprecedented expansion led by three players:

Brazil: Consolidated with the Presal, projecting to reach 5.5 mbpd.

Guyana: The global phenomenon, on the way to surpassing one million barrels per day with new FPSO units.

Argentina: Vaca Muerta is no longer a promise; it is an exporting reality that is scaling towards one million mbpd.

2. The Reality Gap 📉

Despite this boom, the arithmetic is relentless. If Hormuz is blocked, the world loses up to 20 mbpd. Although our region will contribute about 1.6 mbpd additional this year, this would barely cover 8% of the gap left by the Persian Gulf.

And Venezuela? With the largest reserves on the planet, its role is strategic, but the recovery of infrastructure for a massive leap (beyond the projected 1.4 mbpd) requires investment times that an immediate crisis does not allow.

3. The Domino Effect: Logistics and Costs ⚓

A blockade in Hormuz is not just a volume issue, but a logistical geopolitical problem:

Reconfiguration of routes: Asian buyers are already looking towards the South Atlantic, raising freight costs and delivery times.

📌 Cross-Impact: The real risk for Latam is not just crude oil, but Urea and Fertilizers. A cut in supply from the Gulf would spike agricultural costs, impacting regional food security.

💡 Conclusion

Latin America is today the strategic cushion that prevents a total collapse, but it does not have the surplus capacity to replace the Middle East in the short term. We are a key stabilizer, but global energy vulnerability continues to depend on a thread of water just 33 km wide.

Do you think the region is taking advantage of this window of opportunity to attract the necessary investment in infrastructure? I read you in the comments. 👇

#Oil #Energy #Logistics #LatinAmerica #Geopolitics #SupplyChain #Economy2026