March 18 Federal Reserve meeting summary: Powell continued his cautious stance in his post-meeting remarks, clearly emphasizing that monetary policy will continue to be driven by economic data. He maintained a restrained attitude towards the pace of interest rate cuts this year, not releasing a clear timetable for rate cuts, only suggesting that if inflation continues to fall back to the 2% target, a gradual rate cut process would be initiated, keeping overall rate cut expectations moderate. In simple terms, there will be no rate cuts in the short term. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June on polymark instantly dropped from 25% to 10%.
Powell's term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve will officially expire on May 15, 2025. Currently, Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as his successor, but this nomination has not yet entered the Senate hearing process. According to the Federal Reserve Act, if the successor is not confirmed by the Senate when the chairman's term ends, Powell will serve as acting chairman by law until the successor's confirmation is completed, to avoid a leadership vacuum at the Federal Reserve.
In addition, Powell's term as a Federal Reserve Governor will last until January 2028, and this position is not affected by the Chairman's term. He has also made it clear that he will not voluntarily leave the Federal Reserve Board until the Department of Justice reaches a final and transparent conclusion regarding the investigation into the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project.
Powell's Chairman Term: Expires May 15, 2026
- Presidential Nomination: On March 4, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman
- Key Confirmation Milestones in the Senate (Current Prediction):
1. Late March: Senate Banking Committee Holds Public Hearing
2. April: Committee Vote → Submission to Full Senate Vote
3. By May 15: Full Senate Vote Confirmation (Ideal Goal)
4. Late May: New Chairman Takes Office
Two, Confirmation Process (Fixed Steps)
1. Presidential Nomination: Officially Submitted to the Senate
2. Banking Committee: Hearing → Internal Vote (Simple Majority)
3. Full Senate: Debate → Vote (Simple Majority, 51 Votes)
4. Sworn in: Officially Takes Over
Three, Key Risks of Delay/Obstruction
- If confirmation is not completed by May 15: Powell automatically becomes Acting Chairman until the new Chairman takes office
- Resistance Points:
- Internal Opposition from Republicans (e.g., Senator Tillis obstructing the nomination due to the Powell investigation)
- Joint Opposition from Democrats
- Procedural Delays (e.g., Lengthy Debates, Postponements)
Four, Historical Reference (Powell's Reappointment)
- Nominated in November 2021 → Senate Confirmation on May 12, 2022 → Sworn in on May 23
- Due to Senate differences, a delay of about 3 months, during which Powell serves as Acting Chairman.
Summary: Under normal circumstances, the nomination process for successors, from submission and hearing to full Senate vote confirmation, takes 2-3 months. However, due to the current controversy surrounding Powell's related investigations, obstruction by Senate Republicans, and adjustments in agenda priorities for the 2026 election year, Warsh's nomination hearing has not yet been scheduled, making it difficult to advance in the short term. This also means that Powell's temporary retention after his term expires in May is almost certain.
Specifically, Kevin Warsh's difficult on-time assumption of office, even with Trump's support, still faces numerous challenges.#美联储3月议息会议 #降息期待 $BTC
