Artificial intelligence is not just numbers and algorithms. Behind every request you make to ChatGPT is a massive material infrastructure: data centers, transformers, cables, and kilowatts of energy. And this infrastructure is already changing the global metals markets, creating a shortage the world hasn't seen in decades.
The main point: the development of AI depends not on chips, but on copper and aluminum. Without them, new capacities cannot be built. And their extraction is growing slowly, as it did last century.
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⚡ Energy: the appetite of AI is comparable to that of an entire country
According to IEA (International Energy Agency), energy consumption by data centers will grow from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030.
👉 This is more than the current consumption of many G20 countries.
The forecast for the USA is even bolder: by 2030, electricity for data processing will exceed energy costs for the production of all energy-intensive goods (steel, cement, chemicals).
80% of the growth in domestic private demand in the USA in the first half of 2025 was due to investments in data centers (S&P Global).
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🔩 Two metals of the new era
🟠 Copper is the 'oil of electrification'
Copper is needed everywhere: cables, transformers, distribution networks. It has become so strategic that in November 2025, the USA included it for the first time in the list of critical minerals.
· Bloomberg (2024): due to data centers, global copper consumption will increase by 2 million tons by 2030, with half of the increase coming from the USA.
· S&P Global: demand for copper will increase from 28 million tons (2025) to 42 million tons (2040). The deficit could reach 10 million tons without new capacities.
· Cushman & Wakefield: global data center capacity will double to 80 GW. This is equivalent to the electricity supply of 50 million households.
· Copper consumption per data center: from 27 to 66 tons per 1 MW of capacity (depending on the estimate).
Price: from January 2024 to January 2026, copper rose from $8,351** to $12,987 per ton (+55.5%). In December 2025, it first broke the $12,000 mark, and during the day it reached **$14,500 (IEA, IMF).
⚪ Aluminum is the foundation of energy networks
Aluminum is indispensable in power transmission lines and network infrastructure. The Aluminum Association notes: 100% of high-voltage networks in the USA contain aluminum.
· The demand for electricity from data centers in the USA will increase from 4.4% to 8.8% of total consumption by 2030.
· Primary aluminum is already competing with the AI sector for access to cheap energy.
Price: over two years (Jan. 2024 – Jan. 2026), aluminum has risen from $2,202 to $3,134 per ton (+42%).
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💰 Investment gap: there is money, but no resources
The problem is not money. Tech giants have already spent over $400 billion in CAPEX** (capital expenditures) in 2025, and by 2030, the amount could exceed **$2.5 trillion.
· Microsoft: $80 billion for data centers in the 2025 fiscal year.
· Alphabet (Google): raised the CAPEX forecast to $85 billion.
· Goldman Sachs (Dec. 2025): CAPEX of the largest players for 2026 is already estimated at $527 billion, and forecasts are constantly being revised upwards.
But there is a nuance: a data center can be built in a year, while a new mine or copper processing plant takes 5-15 years (licenses, geology, infrastructure).
According to IEA estimates, by 2040, $500–600 billion in new investments will be needed just for metal extraction. Without this, a deficit is inevitable.
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📉 What will be the outcome?
1. AI is becoming a 'heavy' industry. It is no longer a light digital overlay, but a competitor for basic resources — energy, copper, aluminum.
2. Prices for non-ferrous metals will rise. The market has already priced in a long-term bullish trend. Copper and aluminum are the new beneficiaries of the AI revolution.
3. Competition is intensifying. Traditional consumers (construction, automotive, industry) will either have to pay more or go without metal.
4. Investment takeaway: monitoring the raw materials sector (copper, aluminum extraction, processing) is becoming as important as monitoring the AI chips themselves. The speed gap between IT capital and extraction is the main driver of price growth.
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AI will be hindered not by the lack of hype, but by the shortage of metals and electricity. The question is only who will be the first to run out of resources.
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