Let me put it upfront: this article is not to celebrate the mainnet launch, but to discuss a detail I discovered while researching materials that most people have not noticed. Today is March 24,@MidnightNetwork the Genesis Block is set to launch today or tomorrow, and the group is filled with voices saying "it's going to rise" and "the good news has all been released." I did something even more boring: I went to look up the first batch of DApp lists aimed at the mainnet launch window that were publicly released by the officials, as well as what the Midnight team said in their report in January — "We are compiling a list of applications aimed at the launch window." I found something that excites and worries me at the same time. (Real professionals · Life first)

First, let’s lay out today’s market numbers, without discussing metaphysics. The price is in the range of $0.0425 to $0.0433, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $500 million, a market cap of about $718 million, a circulating supply of 1.661 billion, and a total supply of 24 billion. The ATH is $1.81, which means it has fallen more than 97% from there, and more than 60% from this year's high of $0.1185. The 900,000 NIGHT trading reward activity on Binance ends tomorrow, March 25. These numbers are not here to scare you, but to remind you of your cost in today’s emotional market.

Then I will mention what I discovered. In the State of the Network report from Midnight in January, there is a sentence: "The Midnight team is compiling a definitive inventory of applications targeting the launch window. If you are a builder with a DApp planning to go live on the federated mainnet, please submit your project." — The gist is: the team is compiling a list of applications aimed at the mainnet launch window; if you are a developer, please submit your project and progress.

When I saw this sentence, my first reaction was: this is proactive solicitation. In other words, as of January, the officials were still soliciting the first batch of mainnet applications, and there was no ready list yet. What does this itself indicate? It indicates that at the time of the mainnet launch, the number and quality of the first batch of DApps were not predetermined; they were still accumulating. This is both a good thing and a concern for me.

The exciting part is: proactive solicitation means the threshold is relatively low, and any serious developer can join. The diversity of the ecosystem may be richer than I expected. I have seen several developers discussing the specific steps of migrating from Preprod to the mainnet on the Midnight forum; these discussions are technical and trivial, not just for the sake of filling space, but seem to be genuinely preparing.

The worrying part is: proactive solicitation also means that as of the time I saw this information, there is no officially confirmed "mainnet launch DApp list" that is public. In other words, today, when the mainnet launches, I don't know how many real applications can run on the first day, and most people don't know either. If a mainnet launches without any real users using DApps on the first day, the significance of that launch moment is more of a technical milestone rather than a commercial starting point. These two things are not the same, but most people in the group today do not differentiate between them.

In plain language: the mainnet launch means the foundation is laid, not that the building is completed. When the building will be occupied depends on when the first batch of DApps truly goes live and has real users. The timing of this event is unknown on the day of the mainnet launch and will depend on on-chain data.

Then I will mention something directly related to this judgment: Midnight Explorer has announced today that the mainnet is ready, and from the first block of the Genesis Block, on-chain data can be tracked in real-time by anyone. This means that "Is there a real DApp? Are there real users? Is there real DUST consumption?" — these questions now have independently verifiable answers starting today, without needing to believe anyone's statements; the data will speak for itself. I believe this is the most noteworthy point among all the information today.

It must also be mentioned that there is a real existing risk; not mentioning it is equivalent to giving you a selective narrative. The quarterly unlock of Glacier Drop continues until December 4, 2026, which is a daily supply pressure that trickles in, and today's mainnet launch will not make it disappear. The dependence on the Cardano ecosystem is structural and will not vanish before the transition to the mainnet is complete. These two things are always real constraints, and today is no exception. If you hold $NIGHT, you are bearing these two variables; this is reality, not something that can be bypassed with narratives.

Finally, I will keep an eye on what, without making calls or setting target prices. The first thing is, within 48 hours after the mainnet launch, whether there are recognizable non-test real contract calls appearing on Midnight Explorer, even if it’s just one; that is the first on-chain evidence of "someone using it," more honest than any announcement. The second thing is whether Midnight's official announcement of the mainnet launch includes the first batch of DApps that have gone live; the length and quality of that list will tell me whether the "proactive solicitation" action ultimately received a good enough response. The third thing is, one week after the Binance event ends on March 25, whether the 57,000 holding addresses continue to grow; that direction will tell me whether new holders are driven by the event or by the mainnet, as the two situations correspond to completely different follow-up judgments. Brothers, the mainnet launch is a starting point, not an endpoint; data will start speaking from today. DYOR, don't get too excited.