💸 Investors are migrating to cash: the yields of U.S. Treasuries are rising, oil is above $90 — Bitcoin is suffering
In the context of the war around Iran, the jumps in oil prices, and the rise in the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds, investors are massively choosing a simple strategy: selling risky assets and holding cash. In such a situation, it becomes difficult for Bitcoin to rise confidently, even though the on-chain data seems relatively good.
➡️ What is pressuring the markets now
🟡 Oil has risen above $90 due to the conflict, and this revives expectations of rising prices
🟡 The yield on US 5-year Treasuries has risen to ~4.10% — the highest level in about 9 months
🟡 The US stock market has fallen to its lowest levels in half a year or more — people prefer to 'stay in cash'
➡️ Why even gold and bonds are being sold
🟡 When nervousness begins, many raise cash to:
— cover losses and avoid forced sales
— waiting for a larger market drop
— keeping the possibility of buying cheaper later
🟡 The drop in gold in this context shows that liquidity now matters more than 'defensive' theses
🟡 The liquidation of US Treasury bonds sends the same signal: participants want to keep cash on hand
➡️ The risk of an interest rate hike has returned again
🟡 The market has begun to admit the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Fed by July at ~20.5% (just a week ago this was hardly considered)
🟡 High interest rates cool the economy: it becomes harder for companies to take credit and expand
🟡 For risk assets, this is usually a bad environment — money becomes 'more expensive'
➡️ The war adds pressure via budget and inflation
🟡 In the US, additional spending on the conflict is being discussed (the text mentions the figure of $200 billion)
🟡 The higher military spending and the more expensive oil, the harder it is to expect quick interest rate cuts
🟡 This keeps markets in defensive mode
➡️ The major tech companies have also fallen
🟡 In recent weeks, the stocks of several large tech companies have noticeably fallen (in the text — 10% or more)
🟡 In a scenario of expensive money and discussions about overheating in the AI sector, fear grows: either economic slowdown, or a new wave of inflation
🟡 Furthermore, the pressure from the growth of US public debt (in the text — over $39 trillion) worsens the overall picture
➡️ What does this mean for Bitcoin
🟡 As long as investors keep their focus on cash, Bitcoin tends to fall along with other risk assets
🟡 If the tension around Iran and oil continues, the risk of a drop to $66,000 remains
🟡 For a confident recovery, markets need to calm down: oil needs to fall and expectations of tough Fed policy need to weaken
Conclusion: now Bitcoin is not bumping against 'technical levels', but against the situation in the global markets. As long as oil continues to fuel inflationary expectations and US Treasury yields keep rising, investors will cling to cash. Keep an eye on oil and US Treasury yields — they are what is currently defining market sentiment.
#OilPricesDrop #TrumpSaysIranWarHasBeenWon #US-IranTalks #美伊谈判 #US5DayHalt $BTC $USDC
