Without further ado, let's get straight to the point!
First, let's talk about Bitcoin (BTC).
It's still hovering around 71,000, and the pressure around 72,000 is quite heavy, making it difficult to break through at once. If it can't push up, it may head down again, and the pullback could be quite intense, with positions like 65,500 and 62,400 possibly being tested again.
Historically, a bear market is not just a point but a period—around 10 months of repeated bottoming. Looking at the current environment, there aren't really any positives; in fact, it leans bearish: expectations for interest rate cuts have fallen through, and there’s even the possibility of rate hikes. Coupled with the situation in the Middle East and the high levels of U.S. stocks, the overall sentiment is more bearish than bullish.
From the weekly perspective, 60,000 is likely still not the bottom.
Let's talk about Ethereum ETH again.
On the daily chart, it has been pushing against the resistance level of 2200 for the past few days, and it has formed a triangular convergence, indicating that a direction choice will come soon.
Simply put, there are two ways to go: either break through 2200 and stabilize, continuing to push towards the previous high of 2400; or if it can't push up, then there will be another round of adjustment.
So around 2200, it's not advisable to chase the rise; there's no need to bet on a breakout. If it can return below 2000 later, then consider making a more stable swing trade.
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Macroeconomic aspects
There are signs of easing in the Middle East situation; the market is waiting for policy news to land, but there hasn't been any substantial progress yet.
After this wave of events ends, figures like Trump are likely to bring favorable conditions for the midterm elections, and only then might market sentiment truly pick up, so now is a phase of 'waiting'.
This wave of gold may first go down for a bit.
This round of rebound is almost at its end; it's likely to finish today or tomorrow, and we can start looking for shorting opportunities next.
The key to watch next is one position: if gold can break above 46 and stabilize today, then next week is likely to have a corrective rhythm, but it also indicates that the possibility of new lows in April is not high.
But if we can't break through 46 this week, or if it drops below 444, then this wave is basically just a small rebound, and there is a high probability of a deeper decline later, potentially even new lows.
However, regardless of how it goes, one thing is relatively certain: in mid-April, there is a high probability of a good opportunity to go long.
What needs to be done now is to patiently wait for this first wave of rebound to finish, then find a more comfortable position to enter.
Altcoin hotspots
$TAO These past few days have really been intense; as mentioned before, the logic is linked to the AI sector, and it is still worth keeping an eye on.
Just two words: bullish.
The first target is 380; it has already touched over 370, and it's still slowly moving up, with quite strong momentum.
The second target is 450; it's basically just a matter of time.
You can also enter around 350, but remember to reduce your position size by half; don't go in heavy.
The altcoin market here is quite chaotic, with many whales pulling and smashing prices randomly. Projects without fundamentals are best ignored, as there's no need to even look at them. The more promising opportunities in the future will be those that are similar to 'tokenization of US stocks', at least they have some fundamentals, unlike these air coins now.