$ZEC approached the point where excuses for bears end and the real test of strength begins. On the hourly chart, we see a picture that makes traders hold their breath in anticipation: the price has formed a triple touch of the level $219.70, and each subsequent bounce becomes weaker.
Looking at the indicators — and the picture becomes almost a cry for help. RSI on the hourly timeframe has fallen to extreme 9.5 (6-period) and 18.9 (12-period). This is not just oversold; it is a technical knockout of purchasing power. The market is so exhausted that any movement now will be sharp.
However, there is a nuance that adds intrigue. On the daily chart, all three moving averages — EMA 7 (229.53$), EMA 25 (233.38$), and EMA 99 (286.91$) — are far above the current price. This means that any bounce will face a powerful dynamic wall already around $230. The scenario that suggests itself is either a technical correction upwards from extreme oversold conditions or a breakout of multi-month support with acceleration downwards.
The scenario considers an attempt to bounce (provided that the level $219.70 holds):
· Entry (long): $220.0 – $221.5 (from current levels, with confirmation of RSI bouncing off extreme lows).
· Targets: TP1 — $228.0 (first resistance and EMA 7 on the hourly chart), TP2 — $233.0 (test of EMA 25 and 4-hour averages).
· Stop: $218.5 (clear level below the formed triple bottom; its breakout will open the way to $210).
Three touches of the same level are not a coincidence; it is the last line of defense for buyers. If it falls, the market will get the green light to continue falling. If it holds — the oversold condition may result in a sharp, but most likely short-term, bounce.
Do you think the level $219 will withstand the fourth touch, or will we see the long-awaited breakout of multi-month support?