$RIVER is experiencing a dramatic week. In just seven days, the asset lost 28% of its value, and now the price has stalled dangerously close to the minimum of $18.924. The hourly chart is showing a classic picture of a panic sell-off: candles are going down without resistance, and the RSI(6) has fallen to 14.8–17.2, signaling extreme oversold conditions.
But let's take a broader look at the situation. An interesting detail opens up on the daily timeframe: the long-term EMA 99 is at the level of $16.66, and this creates an unexpected context. Yes, the price has broken through all short-term averages and is currently hanging in the air, but it is still more than 15% above the yearly average. This means that the global uptrend that started in February has not yet been formally broken.
The main problem right now is that all three moving averages on the hourly chart — EMA 7 (20.00$), EMA 25 (20.86$), and EMA 99 (22.87$) — have turned downwards and are located far above the current price. They form a dynamic ceiling that turns any rebound into a difficult ascent.
The scenario considers a technical correction from the oversold zone:
· Entry (long): $18.95 – $19.15 (from the current zone, with confirmation of RSI reversal from extreme values).
· Targets: TP1 — $20.00 (return to EMA 7), TP2 — $20.90 (test EMA 25 and 4-hour averages).
· Stop: $18.80 (level below the local minimum; its breakout will open the way to $17.50).
An asset that has grown by 140% in a month and by 400% in three months inevitably goes through a phase of deep correction. The only question is where the decline will stop. We are currently at a point where oversold conditions scream for a rebound, but sellers are not yet in a hurry to take profits.
What do you think, will the level of $18.90 hold, and will we see a sharp rebound from oversold conditions, or will the correction continue to the global EMA 99 at $16.66?