$ICP shows a rare sight today even for the crypto market. On the 4-hour timeframe, RSI(6) has collapsed to 10.8. This is not just oversold; it is a technical anomaly that happens once every few months. The market has literally exhausted itself in attempts to push the price lower.
The price is currently trading at $2,300, touching lows of $2,296, and if we look closely at the structure, we see a classic picture of exhaustion. All three moving averages — EMA 7 ($2,330), EMA 25 ($2,368), and EMA 99 ($2,404) — have converged into a tight group just above the price, but at the same time, the RSI has gone into the zone where technical corrections usually begin.
On the daily chart, the context is more grim. The price is trading below all averages, the long-term EMA 99 is at $2,879, and the global trend remains bearish since January. But now we are talking about a local situation where the spring is compressed to the limit, and the first impulse will likely be directed upwards — at least to relieve the oversold pressure.
The scenario considers a rebound from extreme levels:
· Entry (long): $2,295 – $2,305 (from the current zone, with confirmation of RSI exiting the extreme zone).
· Targets: TP1 — $2,330 (return to EMA 7), TP2 — $2,370 (test EMA 25 and a tight group of averages).
· Stop: $2,280 (level below the local minimum; its breakout will likely lead the price to $2,200).
RSI at 10.8 is a figure that usually makes traders freeze in anticipation. Such values rarely last long; the question is always how sharp the reversal will be. But it is important to remember: a rebound from oversold conditions is a technical correction, not a trend reversal, until the price returns above all averages.
Do you think extreme oversold conditions will trigger a sharp rebound in the coming hours, or will the bears push through this level and we will see a new bottom?