$BTC – This time doesn’t feel like a bear market bottom to me.

Looking at this long-term log chart, the story keeps repeating: massive parabolic tops followed by brutal drawdowns. We’ve seen it in 2013 (-86%), 2017 (-84%), 2021 (-78%), and now again in 2025 — a 71.5% drop from the $126k ATH.

The pattern is clear. But the real question on everyone’s mind is: Is this cycle actually different?

Honestly? Not yet.

We’re sitting in that painful, sideways-grinding correction phase, not the full-blown capitulation that usually signals a true bottom. Past cycle lows came with total exhaustion — panic selling, maximum fear, and long-term holders finally waving the white flag. Right now, even after this heavy drop, the market still feels surprisingly resilient, partly thanks to institutional flows and ETF support.

A 70%+ drawdown definitely stings, but it doesn’t carry the same stench of despair we saw in 2018 or late 2022.

To me, this looks more like a deep mid-cycle flush than the final “blood in the streets” bottom.

Of course, things can shift quickly with macro changes or big liquidity moves. But judging by how every previous cycle played out on this chart… we’re probably not at the real bottom just yet.

What do you think? Does this feel like the bottom to you, or are we still stuck in the chop?

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