The US bond market is flashing warning signs.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back to around 4.40%, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has surged to 6.38% — up for four straight weeks and marking its highest level in over three months.

Just days before the Iran conflict escalated, mortgages had briefly dipped into the 5% range for the first time since 2022. That relief was short-lived.

Now, the +40 basis point spike in mortgage rates is putting fresh pressure on an already strained housing market. The bond market clearly needs help — rising yields reflect growing inflation fears driven by higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East.

This reversal is painful: what looked like improving affordability has suddenly flipped, just as the spring buying season should be heating up.

Higher borrowing costs mean higher monthly payments, fewer qualified buyers, and more friction for the broader economy.

The bond market doesn’t lie — when it starts pricing in persistent inflation and risk, everyone feels it.

What do you think — is this just a temporary geopolitical blip, or the start of a longer grind higher in rates?

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