Among analysts, another theory has emerged regarding the potential bottom of the current bear market. This time it concerns the so-called energy cost of bitcoin, which, according to some observers, has already fallen below 50 thousand dollars. Does this mean that the BTC price is also heading towards this level?
According to TedPillows, the energy cost of mining BTC has fallen below 50 thousand USD.
Some analysts allow for a drop in the price even to 46–48 thousand USD.
They still see signals of a possible rebound on the chart.
Does the cost of energy define the bottom for bitcoin?
The so-called electrical cost, or the cost of electricity needed to mine one bitcoin, has long been regarded by part of the market as a reference point for BTC valuation.
Analyst TedPillows claims that this indicator has just fallen below 50 thousand dollars and may soon drop even to 45 thousand USD. In his view, this increases the likelihood that the bitcoin price will fall below 50 thousand dollars in this cycle and may find a local bottom in the range of 46-48 thousand USD.
Such a scenario would also align with important technical levels from August 2024, which further strengthens its narrative.
Not everyone sees such a bleak scenario
However, it should be emphasized that not the entire market shares this opinion. Ali Martinez pointed out that a formation is emerging on the BTC chart, which many traders interpret as a potentially bullish trend reversal. In his opinion, the short-term target for bitcoin may reach 75,700 USD.
Merlijn The Trader emphasizes that bitcoin has hit the so-called DCA zone on the rainbow chart for the fourth time in history. In the past, such moments often occurred near long-term accumulation zones, after which clear increases followed.
In other words: some analysts see the current environment as a risk of a deeper decline, while others believe that the market is already approaching an area where it is worth thinking more about accumulation than panic.
Geopolitics continues to hinder the bulls
The situation is further complicated by geopolitical chaos. Bitcoin is currently reacting exceptionally strongly to reports from the Middle East. When Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian energy infrastructure, the BTC price dropped below 68 thousand dollars. When the White House softened its tone and postponed possible attacks, the price quickly rebounded above 71 thousand USD.
The problem lies not only in the conflict itself but also in the information chaos surrounding it. One moment we hear about peace talks, and the next moment the other side denies them. For the market, this is a mix that effectively hinders a lasting rebound.
At this moment, bitcoin has again dropped below 70 thousand dollars, and investors remain torn between hope for a rebound and the risk of further declines.