Bitcoin remains under pressure, and market data increasingly suggests that we are dealing with an advanced stage of a bear market. High unrealized losses, extreme fear, and weakening buying activity create a mix that has historically appeared in the later stages of a bear market.
BTC has fallen by over 45% from its peak of 126,000 USD.
On-chain indicators show increasing losses and dwindling demand.
Key technical levels may determine whether the market is waiting for another strong wave of declines.
More and more investors are underwater.
The drop in the bitcoin price below $70,000 is no longer just a normal correction but part of a deeper process of market weakening.
The NUPL indicator has fallen below 0.25, which according to CryptoQuant indicates entry into the 'hope and fear' zone. Simply put: an increasing portion of the market is holding BTC at a loss and waiting for the situation to improve.
According to analysts, about 40% of the bitcoin supply is currently below the purchase price. Additionally, the Fear and Greed index has dropped to levels defined as extreme fear, which clearly shows how weakened sentiment has become.
Glassnode confirms this picture. Realized profits shrank from $3 billion daily in mid-2025 to less than $100 million today. This is a decline of over 96%, which has historically been characteristic of the later stages of a bear market.
The market is becoming increasingly fragile.
In the final phases of a bear market, low liquidity, weak investor interest, and greater susceptibility to sharp moves are usually visible. This is exactly the picture emerging from the data now.
After bouncing from levels below $60,000, bitcoin entered a consolidation phase, but the situation is not stable at all. The main support is currently in the region of $64,000, and the nearest resistance is around $72,000.
The level of $70,200 is also significant, corresponding to the average purchase cost for short-term investors. It is there that today it is determined whether the market can build a local base for a rebound or if selling pressure will return.
What’s next?
If the support breaks, the market may look towards significantly lower levels again, and some analysts even point to areas below $50,000 as a potential next target. On the other hand, breaking to $76,000 would not yet guarantee a lasting trend change, as another strong resistance zone awaits above.
As of today, the market picture remains clear: bitcoin does not look like an asset that has returned to a healthy bull market. It resembles a market that is still trying to survive the late phase of a bear market and is just looking for ground for something bigger.