Brothers, the panic index has hit 10 again! The Bitcoin market is so real: it struggles to rise three to four thousand points in a week, only to drop back within a few hours, a typical bear market pattern, summarized in four words — slow rise, rapid fall.

Looking back at the previous layout idea centered on shorting, it has now been validated one by one. In a bear market structure, the only correct operation is to short. Just because there is a rebound or a green candle does not mean we are in a bull market; it's not that easy. If the bottom does not go through a round of severe washing and a long period of oscillation to accumulate positions, it simply does not have the strength to truly rise. Some may say: Wasn't that wave on March 12 just a direct rise without a long bottoming process? You need to understand what the environment was like back then — a direct drop of 50% on that day was itself an extreme washout. In that kind of market, except for holding spot, those with leverage basically all blew up, and there were almost no bulls left in the market, panic to the extreme, all selling pressure. The main force only needs to slowly accumulate chips at a low position, with no counterparty and no liquidity, the price can naturally oscillate upwards. Looking back at the bottom of 2022, it also repeatedly ground after a continuous drop in a very small range; all true major bottoms must have a round of cleaning beforehand.

This current washout isn't nearly enough; we've only dropped about 50%, and there are plenty of buyers around 60k, all potential sell pressure. If the price wants to embark on a bullish run, we need another round of aggressive selling, followed by a period of choppy price action at the bottom to test support. Therefore, my strategy is clear for the near term: only looking short, only making shorts.

I've mentioned before that news-driven price action doesn't last long and can have significant side effects, and we're seeing that validated again. We are currently holding a short position that we set up at 71500. After a series of retracements, we saw a bullish candlestick, but it didn't continue to rally the next couple of days, indicating weak buying pressure. Either the big players have taken their profits and left, leaving only retail traders to take the bait. So, Thursday saw a return to a choppy downtrend, and today is likely to continue moving downward. I mentioned earlier this week that there was a need to break below last week's low of 67300, with the key support around 66000. Once that breaks, the downward potential opens up; even if it doesn't break, we will just continue to grind sideways, ultimately heading down.

To sum it up: a wedge rebound in a bear market means repeatedly faking breakouts above previous highs. History has shown this countless times, and we're just toying around in the wedge range. Yesterday closed with a bearish candle, and the probability of continuing downward today is high, but we're nearing critical support. So, the strategy is straightforward: wait for a rebound above 70000 before scaling into more shorts.

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The above content is merely my personal perspective and does not constitute investment advice. Any trading based on this is at your own risk.