Global financial market uncertainty has increased due to conflicts in the Middle East and tight global monetary policies. Amidst this situation, there is an interesting phenomenon, namely a sharp correction in gold prices while Bitcoin (BTC) shows relatively better resilience.
Geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran since the end of February 2026, including disruptions in oil distribution routes through the Strait of Hormuz, have heightened market volatility. Additionally, the hawkish policies of the US central bank (The Fed) have strengthened the US dollar and raised bond yields.
Gold prices are under significant pressure due to this situation. In the last 24 hours, gold prices fell by more than 2.5 percent and recorded a weekly decline of about 5 percent. In fact, on March 23, this precious metal experienced its deepest correction since 1983. Overall, gold prices have dropped more than 20 percent from a high of 5,589 USD to around 4,427 USD. This decline was triggered by the strengthening of the USD, rising bond yields, and large liquidation actions in the derivatives market.
Currently, gold is trading at around 4,431 USD per troy ounce, after briefly rising back to around 4,590 USD on March 25, 2026.
In contrast, Bitcoin shows more stable performance. Currently, this crypto is around 69,000 USD and has only corrected about 1.7 percent in the last week. BTC's performance has even outperformed gold by about 20 percent since the conflict began at the end of February, according to Money.
Fahmi Almuttaqin, Analyst at Reku, argues that this performance difference is not just a short-term anomaly but reflects structural changes in global investor preferences.
"The deep correction in gold is actually triggered by structural factors: the strengthening USD and the potential continuation of rising yields that erode the appeal of non-yielding assets," said Fahmi in a press release on Friday (March 27, 2026).
Although Bitcoin is also under similar pressure, its borderless characteristics and algorithmically limited supply could potentially fill the gap left by gold in the eyes of institutional investors.
Fahmi added that this dynamic also highlights the potential of Ethereum, especially after the launch of Ethereum-based ETF products that offer yields from staking mechanisms. "This condition also highlights the potential of Ethereum, especially after the launch of the BlackRock ETHB ETF product that offers staking yields to US capital market investors," he explained.
Institutional data supports this narrative. Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, now holds 762,099 BTC, equivalent to 3.6 percent of the total global Bitcoin supply. The company has added to its Bitcoin holdings more aggressively this year compared to previous years. In the 2022 bear market, Strategy added an average of 156 BTC per week. This figure surged to 4,920 BTC per week in 2024, 4,336 BTC per week in 2025, and now 7,649 BTC per week in 2026.
This means that the Strategy is accumulating Bitcoin 49 times more aggressively than during the last bear market, even though the price is much higher.
The biggest sentiment catalyst this week comes from Bernstein, an asset manager with over 800 billion USD AUM, which on March 24 stated that Bitcoin has likely found its bottom and maintained its year-end target at 150,000 USD, or a potential increase of over 110 percent from the current price.
"Bernstein calls the 52 percent correction from ATH in the area of 126,000 USD the weakest bear case in Bitcoin's history, as it is not accompanied by systemic failures such as the collapse of major exchanges or hidden leverage blowups from crypto funds. This signals a quality of correction that is different from previous cycles," said Fahmi.
From a fundamental on-chain perspective, supply pressure is also becoming increasingly apparent. Glassnode data shows that over 60 percent of Bitcoin supply is currently held by long-term holders. Around March 10, Bitcoin also reached a historic milestone of 20 million BTC that have been circulated, leaving only about 1 million BTC that can still be mined over the next 114 years.
"The combination of institutional accumulation that is still quite aggressive and this supply squeeze dynamic creates an increasingly solid foundation for long-term price movements, although it does not eliminate the potential for high short-term volatility," Fahmi added.
Relevance for Indonesian Investors
For investors in Indonesia, this dynamic presents both challenges and opportunities. As a net importer of oil, rising crude prices directly pressure the rupiah and potentially push inflation higher, exacerbated by the potential continuation of USD strength following the Fed's hawkish stance.
"In this context, Bitcoin offers an increasingly relevant value proposition, a global liquid asset with a fixed supply cap that is unaffected by the monetary policy of any country. As inflation erodes the purchasing power of domestic currencies, exposure to assets like Bitcoin can be one of the diversification strategies worth considering," he added.
Disclaimer: This article is not intended to encourage buying or selling crypto assets. All recommendations come from analysts. The decision is the responsibility of the investor. Be sure to conduct independent research before making a choice.
