You all know about this L2, about its premarket and its price, so I already took on shorts about it 2 months ago, but what’s interesting is I noticed
The premarket is at a standstill, MM is working out very well, however, if we switch to the poly, then the situation is different. The probability that mega will be cheaper than 1B is 42%, which is already very strange
Next, I went to figure out the L2 niche and after the dumps, Vitalik's statements about L2, the situation is as follows:
$POL (ex-MATIC) - 1B FDV
$ARB - 1B FDV
$OP - 550M FDV
$ZK - 390M FDV
$STARK - 350M FDV
I think there is no need to continue further, as it is immediately clear that all L2 are significantly cheaper than MEGA, which is currently 1.3-1.4B
Next, I thought, well maybe mega is such a top network, but when I went to Defillama I saw the following stats on TVL
$POL - 1.2B$
$ARB - 2B$
$OP - 200M$
$ZK - 23M$
$STARK - 250M$
$MEGA - 97M$
Yes, there is no direct correlation here, but of course, I wonder how it is that a project with 0 working dapps, 0 TVL, 0 profit, 0 hype costs at least 1.5 times more than the closest competitor
In short, I want to sum it all up to the fact that the guys from MEGA have really shot themselves in the foot with their KPI and when they finally manage to achieve it, then in some week after TGE they will cost according to the estimate of conditional $OP
I don't know why, but for now in this setup I am 70% confident and over time (with possible pumps) I will be getting short on it and waiting for TGE
I am really looking forward to your reposts, and to comments in the format of why I might be wrong and participants in the sale will be able to take at least a ticket for the minibus