📊 Market overview (March 29)

Current ETH price: 2014 USDT

After a rapid drop from 2200 to 1966, the market is currently oscillating around 2000.

This is a very critical position—

❗ This is not a simple sideways movement, but a 'trend selection point'

🧭 1. Daily level: Structure turns bearish, weakness has been established

From the daily perspective:

High point 2200 forming stage top

Consecutively broke below MA5, MA10, MA30

Current price is running below all short and medium-term moving averages

👉 Structural interpretation:

Bullish trend has been broken

Currently entering a bearish dominant phase (weak rebound)

📍 Daily key level:

Resistance level: 2100 / 2150

Support level: 1960 / 1900

📌 Core conclusion:

👉 Before regaining 2100, treat all rebounds as weak

⏱ Two, four-hour level: Repair structure in the downtrend

Four-hour trend is very typical:

A wave of one-sided decline → 1966 hits bottom

Subsequently appears as sideways consolidation + slight rebound

👉 Technical features:

MA5 crosses above MA10 (short-term repair signal)

But MA30 still suppresses downwards

Overall trend remains bearish

📉 Structural essence:

👉 Rebound ≠ Reversal, just a 'breath' after the decline

📍 Key position:

Strong resistance: 2050 - 2080

Strong support: 1960

⚡ Three, one-hour level: consolidation convergence, change is near

The one-hour chart is the most important signal source currently:

Price fluctuates repeatedly in the range of 1980 - 2050

Volatility gradually narrows

Volume shrinks

👉 Typical signal:

Compressed structure before the change (direction is about to be chosen)

📍 Short-term key breakout point:

Break above 2050 → Look at 2100

Break below 1980 → Look at 1960 or even new lows

⚠️ Current phase:

👉 Do not heavily bet on direction, wait for breakout confirmation

🎯 Four, today's operational strategy (core of practical combat)

🟥 Strategy One: Short on rebound (main idea)

Shorting range: 2040 - 2080

Stop loss: above 2100

Target:

First target: 1980

Second target: 1960

Limit: 1900

👉 Logic:

Trend is still bearish, rebounds just give short points

🟩 Strategy Two: Breakout long (right-side thinking)

Condition: Break above 2050 with volume and stabilize

Enter after confirming pullback

Target: 2100 / 2150

👉 Note:

⚠️ No volume breakout, likely false move

🟨 Strategy Three: Interval arbitrage (fluctuation play)

Buy low near 1980 → Take profit at 2040

Short near 2040 → Take profit at 1980

👉 Suitable for short-term experts

🚨 Five, risk warning (key turning point)

Bullish risk:

Break below 1960

👉 Will trigger a new round of panic selling

Bearish risk:

Strongly stabilize above 2100

👉 Bearish structure is broken, trend may reverse

🧠 Six, dissection of main force behavior (core understanding)

The essence of the current market is not 'up or down', but:

👉 The main force completes chip redistribution amidst fluctuations

Manifested as:

Downward movement creates panic

Sideways consuming patience

Waiting for directional consistency explosion

📌 This phase is most likely to see:

False breakout

Pin bar market

Bi-directional harvesting

🧾 Final conclusion (key point)

👉 Current ETH is at:

Daily: Bearish trend confirmed

Four hours: Rebound repair phase

One hour: Critical change zone

📉 Before there is a trend reversal signal, bottom fishing is not recommended

🔥 One-sentence strategy summary:

👉 In a weak market, do not act like a hero, a rebound is just short, talk about long after the breakout!

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