The market is in extreme panic, and the Fear & Greed Index has entered the extreme range alongside the hoarding coin index after a month.
Today, the panic sentiment in the market has further intensified. The Fear & Greed Index and the national currency index have both entered the extreme range simultaneously for the first time in a month: Fear & Greed Index: hit a new low in nearly a month, currently reported at 8, classified as 'Extreme Fear'; BTC-ahr999 National Currency Index: at its lowest level in nearly a month, currently reported at 0.4458, entering the 'Bottom Buying Zone'. Market fluctuations may be significant, please pay attention to risk control.
The U.S. military is preparing for ground operations against Iran, which has warned of retaliation, while Pakistan plans to mediate.
On March 30, U.S. officials stated that there will be sufficient military force to execute significant ground operations against Iran early next week, while another official indicated that all options are being considered. Israel plans to invite the U.S. to relocate some military bases in the Middle East to Israel and establish new bases. A spokesperson for the Iranian armed forces stated that they will target the residences of U.S. and Israeli military and political personnel as retaliation for attacks on Iranian residential areas. Pakistan intends to host talks to end the conflict, and the U.S. has not yet responded.
Analysts say that the losses of short-term Bitcoin holders are worsening, and the MVRV indicator shows bear market pressure.
Bitcoin's current price is fluctuating in the range of $65,000 - $70,000, which is below the average cost price of short-term holders at $85,900. Almost all investors have been in a state of loss over the past six months. The MVRV indicator is currently around 0.77, below the neutral reasonable level, and it dropped to 0.7 at the end of February, with short-term holders having an average floating loss of about 30%. Long-term low negative value ranges usually indicate that the short-term holding group is under significant pressure, which may exacerbate market fluctuations, but historical patterns show that this stage is suitable for gradually positioning long-term holdings.
On-chain data: Last week, there was a net outflow of $220 million in spot ETH institutions. Although the amount is not large, it has ended a four-week streak of net inflows. Moreover, the cumulative inflow over the previous four weeks was already limited, indicating that ETF institutions have long since entered a rhythm of 'defending while withdrawing'.
A new week, a new beginning, BTC is on the verge of a breakdown! The weekly level 5 wave down structure is already clear, Bitcoin has effectively broken below the 48-day rising trend line, and breaking the six is just a matter of time! Please completely abandon any illusions; the deep bear market has not yet arrived, but a significant drop is imminent! All rebounds are paper tigers, dead cat bounces, and shorting at highs remains the core main strategy. Hold your short positions firmly, strictly adhere to stop losses, and quietly await the official start of the new round of one-sided downward market!
The carnival of ETH will only truly begin after confirming a breakthrough of that yellow trend line; the logic is that simple. Before that, Ethereum has only two possible trends: continuing to consolidate or continuing to decline. From the current structure, the most reasonable path is to first form a double bottom pattern, then seek a breakthrough. I am not a prophet and cannot accurately predict every step, but one thing is certain: when BTC has already been declining for six consecutive months and ETH is also unable to hold up, the so-called altcoin season is simply out of the question.
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