The market continues to decline, and this time Bitcoin is likely to break historical records!
In March, this wave doesn't look like it has fallen much, but the atmosphere is already different: the current monthly return is about -0.76%, and if it doesn't recover by the end of the month, it is very likely to match the historical record of 'six consecutive months of decline.' Experienced players understand that this kind of trend is not just weak, but a signal that the sentiment has been pushed to the extreme. The last similar situation was during the 2018 round, where it halved from a high and fell for six consecutive months, then directly reversed to begin a five-month surge, with an increase of over 200%.
So the key now is not how much it has fallen, but rather—if the sentiment continues to worsen and we see another drop next month, that would be a new record; but if it halts the decline in extreme pessimism, it will look more like the starting point for the next rebound. Markets are often like this: the most desperate times are when opportunities begin to brew.
This wave of decline can be seen as the third segment that started from 76,000.
Currently, the core issue is: is it just a pullback, or the starting point of a new round of decline.
Logically, there are two ways to go — the first is a normal pullback from 60,000 to 76,000; the second is a continuation of a larger downtrend (the trend coming down from the highs), which means the start of a new round of major decline.
The key judgment point is around 63,400. This position is very important, as it is both the pullback range of the previous rise and corresponds to the key proportional level of the current decline structure. If the price stops falling and rebounds around here, it leans more towards 'adjustment'; but if it effectively breaks down and continues to dive, it can basically confirm that a new round of decline is unfolding.
From a structural perspective, the current decline has already formed three segments: the key support below is around 63,300, and the key resistance above is at 69,300. If it drops to 63,300 and continues to break down, it indicates that it is merely the 'first phase' of the decline, with further extension to come; but if it can rebound back to around 69,300, it is more likely to mean that these three segments have completed, and this round is just an adjustment, not a trend decline.
Looking at it from a larger time frame, there’s actually no need to be too entangled with how the monthly line closes. Even if it’s weak in the short term, the probability of a rebound next month is still not low. March originally had obvious intentions for market support and rallying, but was interrupted by sudden geopolitical conflicts. Once the situation eases and oil prices fall, market sentiment can recover, and a rebound may start at any time.
The short-term rhythm still needs to focus on macro factors. If the conflict continues to escalate, U.S. stocks will be under pressure, and BTC could once again test around 60,000. Conversely, as long as 60,000 is not effectively broken, this area is worth betting on, so one can try to buy with light positions and stop-loss if it breaks down.
The overall idea can be simpler: the second quarter is more inclined towards a rebound market, with strategies primarily focused on buying on dips.
But it is essential to remember one thing: the biggest risk in the market now is not the rise or fall, but uncertainty. Many people still have two extreme expectations in their minds: either the conflict will end quickly, and the market will fully recover; or the conflict will continue, and risk assets will collapse entirely. But the reality is — the direction has not yet emerged.
Therefore, the safest approach is not to guess, but to respond: if uncertain, use light positions; if there are no signals, just wait.
Those who can survive for a long time are not the ones who guess the right direction, but the ones who understand how to control the rhythm.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, entry requires caution, personal views, not advice, for sharing only.