Author @Aurora Luna notes two alarming signals in the on-chain market that could herald a strong price movement.
1️⃣ Whales have stopped accumulating
At the beginning of 2026, large wallets were aggressively accumulating coins, pushing the price up. By mid-March, the activity of whales went negative, with no influx of new money from large players, and some began to sell off their reserves.
2️⃣ Exchanges are filling up with coins
The share of large deposits (the top 10 largest inflows to exchanges) has sharply increased. Historically, such a picture of mass transfer of coins to exchanges precedes an increase in volatility and selling pressure.
⚠️ What does this mean for the market
· Buying has stopped in wallets.
· Exchanges have begun to ramp up activity.
· While BTC holds around $67,000, it looks like a 'relay handover' from old holders to new.
· There is no influx of fresh capital in stablecoins. Without new liquidity, any attempt by whales to lock in profits could collapse the liquidity price as there simply wouldn’t be enough to buy.
💡 Conclusion
The market is in a tense equilibrium. Signals indicate a high probability of increased volatility and potential downward pressure. The coming days may show who is stronger: the old holders locking in profits or the new demand that has not yet arrived.