The worst possible scenario could become a reality: risks to oil and LNG supply
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A month after the attacks in Iran, the global energy market faces its second worst crisis scenario. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial point through which 19 million barrels per day used to transit, is practically closed to maritime trade. This paralysis has generated a global deficit of 12 million barrels per day, leaving refineries, especially in Asia, operating at minimum capacity and desperately seeking alternatives.
Despite reports of military successes, the logistical reality is critical: insecurity for navigation persists. Iran has demonstrated the capability to strike key infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, keeping the global economic agenda in suspense. The risk of a greater escalation, including attacks on pipelines and regional refineries, threatens to unleash unprecedented infrastructure destruction and a prolonged supply crisis.
The impact on prices is alarming and is already being felt in the markets. Brent crude has risen by 59% since the conflict began, surpassing $115. However, the most dramatic situation occurs in derivatives: in the Asian market, jet fuel and diesel have doubled in value in just 30 days, reflecting a raw material shortage that is beginning to affect all international markets.
Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are trying to offset losses through alternate routes in the Red Sea and Fujairah, these efforts are insufficient. The loss of more than 10% of the world's oil supply cannot be covered solely with strategic reserves. Furthermore, the threat of a potential blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis would further complicate logistics to the Suez Canal, increasing costs and delivery times.$BTC
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A month after the attacks in Iran, the global energy market faces its second worst crisis scenario. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial point through which 19 million barrels per day used to transit, is practically closed to maritime trade. This paralysis has generated a global deficit of 12 million barrels per day, leaving refineries, especially in Asia, operating at minimum capacity and desperately seeking alternatives.
Despite reports of military successes, the logistical reality is critical: insecurity for navigation persists. Iran has demonstrated the capability to strike key infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, keeping the global economic agenda in suspense. The risk of a greater escalation, including attacks on pipelines and regional refineries, threatens to unleash unprecedented infrastructure destruction and a prolonged supply crisis.
The impact on prices is alarming and is already being felt in the markets. Brent crude has risen by 59% since the conflict began, surpassing $115. However, the most dramatic situation occurs in derivatives: in the Asian market, jet fuel and diesel have doubled in value in just 30 days, reflecting a raw material shortage that is beginning to affect all international markets.
Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are trying to offset losses through alternate routes in the Red Sea and Fujairah, these efforts are insufficient. The loss of more than 10% of the world's oil supply cannot be covered solely with strategic reserves. Furthermore, the threat of a potential blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis would further complicate logistics to the Suez Canal, increasing costs and delivery times.$BTC