I've been mulling over one of the scenarios that Trump and his backers might play out; the idea is that it could be beneficial for him to keep the Strait of Hormuz under wraps in this situation.
1. Technical foundation: "The Perfect Puzzle"
In the U.S., refineries are geared towards heavy crude, while there's a unique imbalance existing in the U.S.:
* US shale oil: It's 'light' and 'sweet' (low sulfur).
* Gulf Coast refineries: Many of them were built over decades specifically for 'heavy' and 'sour' (high sulfur) oil, traditionally supplied by Venezuela, Mexico, and Canada.
* Venezuelan oil: This is the 'heavy' oil that's perfectly suited for American refineries.
If Trump (or any other president) secures a stable flow of Venezuelan oil into the US, American refineries can operate at full capacity and produce cheap diesel and gasoline without having to buy expensive oil from the other side of the world.
2. The 'Artificial Crisis' scenario
For this plan to work in 'lowering prices strictly for the US,' the algorithm could look like this:
* Step 1: Global shortage. Through sanctions against other players (like Iran or OPEC+ restrictions) or geopolitical tensions, global oil prices spike.
* Step 2: 'Venezuelan Anschluss.' The US negotiates with a new (or very loyal old) Venezuelan government that their oil goes only to the US in exchange for investment and protection.
* Step 3: Closed loop. The US mixes its light oil with Venezuelan heavy oil, refines it domestically, and fully supplies the internal market.
3. Can the US market be 'disconnected' from the world?
This is where the main challenges begin. Oil is a global commodity.
* Arbitrage: If oil is priced at $120 globally, but the US is artificially trying to hold it at $60, American private companies (Exxon, Chevron, etc.) will do everything to export that oil and sell it abroad for $120. To prevent this, the government would have to impose an export ban (as was the case in the US until 2015).
* Private ownership: Unlike Saudi Arabia, in the US, oil is not owned by the state. The president can't just order companies to 'sell cheaper.' They would either have to subsidize the difference from the budget or introduce strict government regulation.
* Logistical gap: To keep prices in the US lower than global ones, there needs to be an oversupply of oil within the country that cannot be exported. This will create a 'price bubble' inside the US.
4. Real risks of this plan
* Anger of allies: If the US creates a global crisis to buy cheap for themselves, it will ruin relations with Europe and Asia.
* Investment hunger: If prices are artificially suppressed within the US, American shale companies will find it unprofitable to drill new wells (their production costs are quite high). They may just go bankrupt.
* Global inflation: High oil prices globally will still indirectly hit the US — through the cost of imported goods, logistics, and air travel.
Conclusion
The 'Venezuelan heavy oil + American refineries = cheap gas for Americans' plan is a strategic ace that Trump might actually try to play. It could make the US less dependent on OPEC.
However, creating an 'island of cheap oil' in a raging ocean of global crisis is extremely difficult without reverting to a strict planned economy and an export ban, which contradicts the free market principles that Trump usually declares.