A geopolitical scenario that could occur within the next 4 to 10 weeks is attracting the attention of global market analysts. Accordingly, the Islamic regime in Iran faces the risk of losing control over critical oil infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz, and the capability to produce ballistic missiles.

Potential impact on financial markets:
- Crude oil: The loss of control over oil infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz - which transports about 20% of the world's oil - could cause significant price volatility, with a price increase scenario due to supply disruption concerns.
- Stock markets: Global indices like S&P 500 and Nasdaq could come under pressure from escalating geopolitical risks, particularly in sectors sensitive to energy prices.
- Bonds and Forex: Safe-haven assets like U.S. government bonds and the USD could benefit, while currencies of oil-dependent countries may fluctuate.
- Commodities: Besides oil, gold prices may rise due to the search for safe-haven assets.
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